Tianfeng's analysis of travel consumption during the 2025 Spring Festival: matching expectations, tourism resilience reflected.

Tianfeng released a research report stating that the overall consumption of travel during the 2025 Spring Festival holiday met expectations, achieving stable growth in tourism and travel under high base numbers, demonstrating strong resilience in tourism consumption. In the past, tourism consumption showed a "weakening cycle, outstanding resilience" in 2023, "continued resilience, scarce prosperity" in 2024, and is expected to show "policy-driven, multi-point flowering" in 2025. Recommendations include focusing on: 1) tourism - TRIP.COM-S (09961), TONGCHENGTRAVEL (00780), Anhui Jiuhuashan Tourism Development (603199.SH), etc.; 2) cyclical beneficiaries - Tongqinglou Catering Corporation (605108.SH), BTG Hotels (600258.SH), HAIDILAO (06862), YUM CHINA (09987), FESCO Group Co., Ltd (600861.SH), Beijing Career International (300662.SZ), etc. Key points from Tianfeng: Spring Festival Tourism: Volume and price rise under high base numbers meet expectations, tourism continues During the 8-day 2025 Spring Festival holiday, there were 501 million domestic trips nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%; total domestic travel expenditure was 6770.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%; per capita travel consumption was approximately 1351 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; per capita daily travel consumption was approximately 169 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% (95% of the same period in 2019). Spring Transport: Passenger volume reaches new high, private car travel maintains high growth During the Spring Festival period (1.28-2.4, Lunar New Year's Eve to the seventh day of the first month), the total cross-regional population flow in the whole society accumulated to 2.31 billion person-times, a 6% increase year-on-year compared to 2024. Among them, the passenger volume of railways/roads/civil aviation/waterways increased by 5%/6%/3%/7% respectively year-on-year. Hainan Duty-Free: Passenger flow under pressure, per capita consumption increases year-on-year 1) Offshore duty-free: During the 2025 Spring Festival period, Haikou Customs supervised offshore duty-free shopping amounting to 20.94 billion yuan, a 15.9% decrease year-on-year; with 240,500 duty-free shopping trips, a 19.2% decrease year-on-year; per capita consumption was 8706 yuan, a 4.2% increase year-on-year. 2) Passenger flow: During the 2025 Spring Festival period, Meilan Airport transported approximately 857,000 passengers, a 7.8% decrease year-on-year; Sanya Airport transported approximately 692,000 passengers, a 6.3% increase year-on-year. Tourist Attractions: The first Non-material Cultural Heritage year sees high popularity in folk customs tourism, with attractions performing well According to the Tongcheng report, historical and cultural sites, natural landscapes, zoos, museums, and religious temples are the most popular theme park bookings during the Spring Festival holiday. During the Spring Festival period, the Jiuhua Mountain scenic area received approximately 471,000 visitors, which remained stable year-on-year. The Emei Mountain scenic area received a total of 387,500 visitors during the Spring Festival period, a 4.01% increase year-on-year. The Zhejiang Sunriver Culture Tourism scenic area received approximately 791,700 visitors during the Spring Festival period, a 15.35% increase year-on-year, with operating revenue of 49.6366 million yuan, a 14.35% increase year-on-year. Hotels and Catering: 1) Hotels: Under the influence of high base numbers and expanding hotel supply, the hotel market during the 2025 Spring Festival holiday remains under pressure, but the average room rate decline is narrowing. According to Hotel Home data, the average occupancy rate of domestic sample hotels during the 8-day 2025 Spring Festival holiday was 49.7%, a 3.7 percentage point decrease year-on-year; the average room rate was 287.7 yuan, a 2.6% decrease year-on-year. Due to the overlap of Valentine's Day in 2024 and supply-side growth, the overall RevPAR of hotels during the 2025 Spring Festival holiday showed a downward trend, but the average room rate decline narrowed to a low single-digit percentage. It is expected that top hotel groups will perform better. 2) Catering: Overall growth accelerated as expected, with a focus on the stimulating effect of dining vouchers. During the Spring Festival period, the revenue of key inspected catering enterprises nationwide increased by 6.2% year-on-year, with a concentration of dining demand release, showing an increase from the 3% growth rate in December 2024. During the Spring Festival period, Meituan's dining in-store consumption increased by 18.7%. Gold and Jewelry: Gold prices reach new highs during the Spring Festival period On January 31, the spot gold price in London broke through $2,800 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 10% from the beginning of January to February 7; on February 7, the domestic spot gold price reached 669 yuan per gram, with a cumulative increase of 9% from the beginning of January to February 7. Domestic gold jewelry prices also increased accordingly. During the Spring Festival period, national gold consumption increased by 13% year-on-year, driven by the rise in gold prices and the traditional consumption peak season. Inbound and Outbound Tourism: Inbound and outbound tourist numbers reach new highs 1) Inbound tourism: During the Spring Festival holiday, the number of inbound tourists was 3.4321 million person-times, a 6.2% increase year-on-year. Among them, there were 699,500 foreign tourists and 2.7326 million tourists from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. 2) Outbound tourism: There were 3.7838 million outbound Chinese tourists, a 5.2% increase year-on-year, including 907,600 tourists going abroad. Risk Warning: Risks of macroeconomic fluctuations, intensified industry competition, and declining industry prosperity.