Zheshang: Ship prices in January increased month-on-month, and we continue to recommend leading shipbuilding companies.

Zheshang released a research report stating that, according to Clarkson data, as of the end of January 2025, Clarkson's new ship price index closed at 189.38 points, an increase of 0.12% compared to the previous month and an increase of 4.40% year-on-year. Since 2021, it has increased by 48.99%, reaching a historical peak of 98.89%. Looking at different types of ships, container ship prices increased month-on-month, while tanker, bulk carrier, and liquefied gas carrier prices fell slightly compared to the previous month. The current shipping industry continues to be highly prosperous, with various types of ships increasing in volume one after another, shipyard profitability continuously improving, and supply and demand tension possibly driving ship prices to new highs, with leading companies having great performance resilience. Zheshang's main points are as follows: Monthly ship prices: The new ship price index increased month-on-month by the end of January 2025, and container ship prices increased month-on-month According to Clarkson data, as of the end of January 2025, Clarkson's new ship price index closed at 189.38 points, an increase of 0.12% compared to the previous month and an increase of 4.40% year-on-year; since 2021, it has increased by 48.99%, reaching a historical peak of 98.89%. Looking at different types of ships, container ship prices increased month-on-month, while tanker, bulk carrier, and liquefied gas carrier prices fell slightly compared to the previous month. Detailed ship price data by type: The new ship price index for container ships closed at 118.63, an increase of 0.08% compared to the previous month and an increase of 5.58% year-on-year, reaching a historical peak of 92.41%; the new ship price index for tankers closed at 222.89, a decrease of 0.09% compared to the previous month and an increase of 6.22% year-on-year, reaching a historical peak of 87.28%; the new ship price index for bulk carriers closed at 173.13, a decrease of 0.71% compared to the previous month and an increase of 4.22% year-on-year, reaching a historical peak of 72.25%; the new ship price index for liquefied gas carriers closed at 205.85, a decrease of 0.57% compared to the previous month and an increase of 2.98% year-on-year, reaching a historical peak of 99.10%; the new ship price for LNG carriers closed at USD 257 million, a decrease of 1.15% compared to the previous month, a decrease of 3.02% year-on-year, reaching a historical peak of 96.98%. Subsequently, with the expected increase in ship prices due to tight ship availability and inflationary pressure. New orders: In January 2025, new orders decreased by 78% year-on-year, mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday According to the latest data from Clarkson, in January 2025, the new orders for all ship types (1000+ GT) totaled approximately 2.97 million deadweight tons, a decrease of 78.2% year-on-year. Among them, new orders for container ships totaled approximately 2.38 million deadweight tons, an increase of 11.1% year-on-year, accounting for 80% of all ship types; new orders for tankers totaled approximately 270,000 deadweight tons, a decrease of 93.1% year-on-year, accounting for 9%; new orders for bulk carriers totaled approximately 130,000 deadweight tons, a decrease of 97.7% year-on-year, accounting for 4%; new orders for LNG carriers totaled approximately 100,000 deadweight tons, a decrease of 50.0% year-on-year, accounting for 3%, and new orders for other ship types totaled 100,000 deadweight tons, a decrease of 94.8% year-on-year, accounting for 3%. Backlog orders: As of the end of January 2025, global backlog orders totaled approximately 368 million deadweight tons, an increase of 28% year-on-year According to the latest data from Clarkson, as of January 31, 2025, the backlog orders for all ship types totaled approximately 368 million deadweight tons, an increase of 27.5% year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 0.03% compared to the previous month. Among them, backlog orders for container ships totaled approximately 91.8 million deadweight tons, an increase of 19.3% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.17% compared to the previous month, accounting for 25% of all ship types; backlog orders for tankers (10k+ DWT) totaled approximately 97.32 million deadweight tons, an increase of 86.9% year-on-year, with a decrease of 0.20% compared to the previous month, accounting for 26%; backlog orders for bulk carriers totaled approximately 112 million deadweight tons, an increase of 12.7% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.99% compared to the previous month, accounting for 31%; backlog orders for LNG carriers totaled approximately 32.45 million deadweight tons, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year, with a decrease of 2.18% compared to the previous month, accounting for 9%; backlog orders for other ship types totaled 33.99 million deadweight tons, an increase of 18.9% year-on-year, with a decrease of 1.25% compared to the previous month, accounting for 9%. Completion and delivery: In January 2025, global completion and delivery totaled approximately 9.9 million deadweight tons, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year According to the latest data from Clarkson, in January 2025, global completion and delivery totaled approximately 9.9 million deadweight tons, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year. Among them, container ship completion and delivery totaled approximately 232,000 TEU, a decrease of 24.5% year-on-year; tanker (10k+ DWT) completion and delivery totaled approximately 19.4 million deadweight tons, an increase of 48.1% year-on-year; bulk carrier completion and delivery totaled approximately 39.9 million deadweight tons, a decrease of 13.7% year-on-year; LNG carrier completion and delivery totaled approximately 7.4 million deadweight tons, an increase of 164.7% year-on-year. Investment advice: Opportunities in the shipping industry sector. 1) Industry prosperity: The current shipping industry continues to be highly prosperous, with various types of ships increasing in volume one after another, shipyard profitability continuously improving, and supply and demand tension possibly driving ship prices to new highs, with leading companies having great performance resilience. With the advancement of new ship orders towards large-scale, high-end, dual-fuel directions, leading companies' construction of large ships is globally leading in technology, and in the future, they will have strong competition for high-quality and high-priced orders, benefiting from China's high production capacity and high technological level shipyards. 2) Improvement in competitive landscape: Shipbuilding industry total assembly asset integration is in full swing, and the competitive landscape of the shipbuilding industry is expected to improve. 3) Enhancement of synergy effects of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation: The integration of total assembly assets under China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation is expected to further enhance internal synergy, improve scale effects, and strengthen lean management. Regarding targets: Key recommendations include China CSSC (600150.SH), China Shipbuilding Industry (601989.SH), China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power (600482.SH), China Marine Information Electronics (600764.SH), CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering (600685.SH, 00317), Asian Star Anchor Chain (601890.SH), with attention to Guangdong Songfa Ceramics (603268.SH). Risk []Note:Shipbuilding demand fell short of expectations; raw material prices increased; third-party data was not comprehensively collected.