CMB International: Maintains "outperform the market" rating for the domestic insurance industry. It is recommended to pay attention to China Life Insurance (02628) during the equity uptrend cycle.
CMB International expects the NBV growth rate of listed insurance companies to return to the mid-to-high single digits to low double digits level by 2025.
Zhaojin International released a research report recommending China Pacific Insurance (02601), Ping An Insurance (02318), and China Life Insurance (02628) for their stable growth in liabilities. They also recommended PICC P&C (02328) for their stable dividend payouts. They advised focusing on China Life Insurance in the equity bullish cycle.
The report stated that five mainland Chinese listed insurance companies disclosed their full-year performance forecasts, with strong growth in net profit attributable to shareholders mainly due to the significant increase in investment income driven by the surge in equity markets in the third quarter of 2024. Looking ahead to 2025, the bank believes that the growth of new business value (NBV) in life insurance will be mainly driven by the increase in value rates, with new premiums expected to return to a stable growth trajectory. They predict that by 2025, the NBV growth rate of listed insurance companies will return to the mid-to-high single-digit to low double-digit level.
On the product level, they expect the increase in the proportion of dividend insurance sales to be more significant this year, but overall growth is expected to remain steady, leading to a further decline in the cost of insurance companies' rigid liabilities. At the stock selection level, they are optimistic about individual stocks with improved marginal improvement in the investment side and better matching of asset and liability durations, maintaining an industry rating of "outperform the market."
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