Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | International Gold Price Hits Record High! Gold Jewelry Prices Soar Institutions: Still has Long-term Potential for Upside (with Concept Stocks)

According to the Zhichun Cai APP, on January 22nd, the main Shanghai gold contract rose to 645 yuan/gram, hitting a new historical high. International gold prices also reached a two-month high, rising to 2758 US dollars per ounce by the afternoon of the 22nd. The prices of various major gold brands' gold jewelry are also rising, with CHOW TAI FOOK's price on the 22nd at 833 yuan/gram, and other brands such as Lao Feng Xiang, CHOW SANG SANG, and Zhou Lufu breaking through 830 yuan/gram. On the 21st, the price of gold jewelry from these brands was around 820 yuan/gram, seeing an increase of 10 yuan/gram in just one day. On the news front, Trump stated that he is considering imposing a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, saying, "I think we will do this on February 1st." This statement stimulated market risk aversion sentiment, leading to a sharp rise in gold prices. Analysts point out that the main reasons for the rise in gold prices include a decrease in US CPI data, an increase in M2 money supply, uncertainty in Trump's policies, expectations of a Fed rate cut, technical support, and global economic uncertainty. Standard Chartered Bank stated that gold will be affected in the short term by Trump's policies but the long-term trend will depend on the global economic situation and demand for safe-haven assets. With the upcoming Year of the Snake, the gold consumption market is entering a peak sales season, with many gold shops attracting consumers. Due to the direct impact of rising international gold prices on domestic gold prices on January 22nd, the prices of major domestic gold jewelry brands such as CHOW TAI FOOK and CHOW SANG SANG have approached 833 yuan per gram. To attract consumers, various gold shops have launched Zodiac-themed decorations for the Year of the Snake, including snake-shaped bracelets, necklaces, and rings. These products are selling well, with discounts ranging from 9.2% to 6% at Chow Tai Fook and discounts up to 8% at Lao Feng Xiang. Their snake-themed products are also popular. Banks have recently introduced gold products related to the Year of the Snake, such as gold red packets and gold bars. These lucky products with auspicious meanings have been selling well. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, CCB, and other banks have launched gold red packets and zodiac gold products. These products are mostly made of 24K gold, weighing around 1g to 2g, with prices ranging from hundreds to thousands of RMB. Some products have been temporarily out of stock due to high sales before the Spring Festival and are expected to arrive later. Since the beginning of the year 2025, international interest in gold investment has been on the rise, with gold prices surpassing 2700 US dollars per ounce. Experts generally believe that gold prices are expected to continue to rise in 2025 and may even break through the historical high of 3000 US dollars per ounce. Data released by the People's Bank of China shows that as of the end of December 2024, China National Gold Group's gold reserves reached 191.34 billion US dollars, with a total of 73.29 million ounces, expanding for the second consecutive month. Central banks in other countries are also increasing their gold reserves, a trend expected to continue in 2025 as a hedge against economic fluctuations and currency depreciation. Huayuan Securities released a research report stating that looking ahead to 2025, the logic of the rise in the price of precious metals remains unchanged. The dual main themes of "rate cut trading" and "Trump 2.0" are expected to continue to catalyze. On the other hand, in the context of protectionism and great power games, central bank purchases will provide strong support for gold prices. In the short term, the disruption caused by the Fed's expected rate cuts in 2025 and Trump's inflation expectations policy could drive short-term trading of gold prices. In the long term, with the dual easing of US monetary and fiscal policies, the shrinking of USD credit, and de-dollarization, gold is expected to still have upward potential in the medium to long term. Related stocks: Zijin Mining Group(02899): Morgan Stanley released a research report on January 22nd, giving Zijin Mining Group(02899) a "Hold" rating with a target price of 22.9 Hong Kong dollars. The report mentions that Zijin Gold expects a year-on-year increase of 16% in gold production and 7.5% in copper production in 2025. The new guidance is 5.7% lower than the company's previous copper production target. The report states that Zijin Mining Group's preliminary net profit for the 2024 fiscal year is approximately 32 billion Chinese yuan, 51.5% higher than the bank's forecast. Excluding one-time expenses, the core net profit is 31.4 billion Chinese yuan, a 45.3% year-on-year increase. Given that the gold and copper production in the previous year largely met the bank's expectations, the higher-than-expected profit is attributed to better cost control and higher silver profits. LINGBAO GOLD(03330): A recent announcement by the group stated that they expect (1) revenue for the year ending December 31, 2024, to be between approximately 11.587 billion to 11.903 billion Chinese yuan, an increase of about 10% to 13% compared to the revenue of 10.534 billion Chinese yuan for the year ending December 31, 2023; and (2) net profit for the year ending December 31, 2024 to be approximately 617 million to 706 million Chinese yuan, an increase of about 110% to 140% compared to the net profit of 294 million Chinese yuan for the year ending December 31, 2023. LAOPU GOLD(06181): In late January, Guoce International released a research report stating that LAOPU GOLD(06181) achieved strong performance in the first half of 2024. Although the industry faced some pressure in the second half of the year due to the rapid rise in gold prices, the bank believes that Laopu's high-end positioning has led to minimal impact of gold price fluctuations on its performance. The report believes that despite the rapid rise in gold prices, Laopu's performance is still relatively stable due to its high-end positioning.Overall growth is expected to be achieved relatively quickly this year.CHINAGOLDINTL (02099): CHINAGOLDINTL has released its annual production guidance for 2025 as follows: Jiama Mine: expected copper production of approximately 139 million to 148 million pounds (approximately 63,000 to 67,000 tons), gold production of approximately 69,124 to 73,947 ounces (approximately 2.15 to 2.3 tons); and the Chifeng Gold Mine: expected gold production of approximately 77,162 to 83,592 ounces (approximately 2.4 to 2.6 tons). The company reported that the earthquake that occurred on January 7, 2025 in the Gertse County of Shigatse City, Tibet Autonomous Region, did not impact the Jiama Mine located in Muzhugongka County 500 kilometers away. As per safety regulations, preventive security measures were immediately taken in all mining areas of the Jiama Mine.