Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) lost its title as "global stock king" under the chorus of criticism from several institutions ahead of its earnings report next week.
22/01/2025
GMT Eight
Hong Kong WANTED News reported that since the beginning of 2025, the cumulative decline in the stock price of Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) has exceeded 11%. As of the close of the US stock market on January 21st, Apple Inc.'s market value evaporated by $110.3 billion overnight, and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) once again surpassed Apple Inc. to become the global leader, meaning that Apple Inc. has temporarily lost its "global stock king" status.
At the closing that day, NVIDIA Corporation's total market value reached $3.448 trillion, while Apple Inc.'s market value was $3.348 trillion, representing a $110.3 billion overnight decline.
Chinese version of iPhone 16AI function lagging behind
According to the independent research institution Counterpoint Research data, Apple Inc.'s iPhone sales performance in China in the fourth quarter of 2024 was poor. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the iPhone was still the best-selling phone in China. However, in the fourth quarter of 2024, its sales decreased by 18.2% year-on-year, which was a major setback for Apple Inc. in the Chinese market. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Apple Inc.'s sales ranking in the Chinese market fell to the third position, holding only about one-sixth of the market share.
Due to a significant decline in the Chinese market share, iPhone sales in the global market in the fourth quarter of 2024 also decreased by 5%, with a market share decline of 1 percentage point to 19%.
The main reason for the decline in Apple Inc.'s iPhone sales may be the poor performance of its latest generation iPhone 16. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Apple Inc.'s iPhone 16 had a strong performance in the initial stages of its launch in the Chinese market, with sales increasing by 20% year-on-year in the first three weeks before it quickly cooled down due to the lack of AI functionality, which may have contributed to it.
The biggest selling point of Apple Inc.'s latest generation iPhone is the upgraded artificial intelligence function, however, most new AI functions are still unavailable in China. To address this issue, Apple Inc. is seeking local manufacturers to solve the device and cloud-based AI infrastructure problems, but no agreement has been reached yet.
Multiple institutions pessimistic about next week's earnings report
Apple Inc. is set to announce its first quarter financial report for the fiscal year 2025 next week, but several institutions are not optimistic about it.
On Monday of this week, the well-known Wall Street institution Jefferies Financial Group Inc. downgraded Apple Inc. stock and predicted that the upcoming Apple Inc. financial report and performance guidance would fall short of expectations.
Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s securities analyst Edison Lee downgraded Apple Inc.'s rating from "hold" to "underperforming the market" on Monday and lowered the target price from $211 to $200.75, representing nearly 10% downside from Tuesday's closing price. As per statistics, Edison Lee is the fifth publicly bearish analyst on Apple Inc., with the "Apple Inc. intelligence" continued weakness being seen as a key drag factor.
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. expects that Apple Inc. will not meet the revenue growth target of 5% in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2025 as per the financial report to be released next week, with the performance growth guidance for the current quarter only showing "low single-digit percentage points," below market consensus expectations. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. also revised its iPhone shipment volume forecast for the last three months of 2024, from a growth of 1% to a contraction of 2%.
Similarly, J.P. Morgan also published a report stating that the concerns about Apple Inc.'s future outlook are mainly focused on the future rather than on a single quarter's performance. The main reasons are that the market share of Apple Inc. in the Chinese market may continue to decline, as the peak period of the company's product cycle has passed, and local government consumer subsidies mainly target low to mid-range phones and not high-end smartphones. Additionally, the limited rollout of artificial intelligence (AI) functionalities by the company may result in flat unit sales in the coming quarters, and the strong US dollar may also affect the company's earnings negatively in the next few quarters.
However, the bank also believes that with its widespread presence in the fields of smartphones, personal computers, and potentially more smart home devices in the future, Apple Inc. remains one of the most favored participants in the cutting-edge artificial intelligence ecosystem. Unlike most other hardware-focused cutting-edge artificial intelligence beneficiaries covered by the bank, in addition to the replacement cycle of cutting-edge artificial intelligence devices, Apple Inc. also has significant opportunities in the services sector. Nevertheless, the bank expects that Apple Inc.'s upcoming performance will trigger profit forecast adjustments due to conservative guidance and lead to a weakening of the stock price. The bank lowered its profit forecast for Apple Inc., reducing its revenue forecast for the first quarter of 2025 (ending in December last year) from $123.7 billion to $123 billion, and its earnings per share forecast from $2.34 to $2.33, both below the market expectations of $124.3 billion and $2.35, respectively. At the same time, the bank lowered its target price from $265 to $260.
This article is reproduced from "Wind WANTED" and edited by GMTEight: Chen Xiaoyi.