CMSC listed insurance companies' premium income in December 2024: Life insurance NBV expected to increase sharply, property insurance performance steady.

CMSC released a research report, maintaining a recommended rating for the insurance industry. In 2024, the premium income of listed insurance companies is expected to grow steadily, with the recent regulation issuing the "Notice on Establishing Matters Related to the Establishment of a Dynamic Adjustment Mechanism for Tying Preset Interest Rates to Market Interest Rates", which is expected to further alleviate long-term potential interest rate spread risks in the industry. Looking ahead to 2025, with the orderly progress of the opening red envelope and product transformation, the proportion of dividend-type insurance is expected to increase significantly, and life insurance NBV is expected to continue to grow positively. The growth rate of property insurance premiums is expected to continue to rebound, and if the integration of non-auto insurance fields is implemented in the future, it will also help improve the industry's competitive landscape. CMSC's main views are as follows: Recently, listed insurance companies disclosed their original insurance premium income for the year 2024. The performance of new single premiums for life insurance is positive, with NBV expected to grow robustly; the performance of property insurance continues to be stable. Positive growth in new single premiums for life insurance, with robust growth expected in NBV From January to December 2024, the year-on-year growth rates of life insurance premium income of listed insurance companies are as follows: Ping An Insurance +7.6% > PICC Life Insurance +5.3% > China Life Insurance +4.7% > New China Life Insurance +2.8% > CPIC Life +2.4%, with the month of December being: New China Life Insurance +19.1% > CPIC Life +8.9% > China Life Insurance +1.9% > PICC Life Insurance +1.3% > Ping An Insurance -4.6%. Premium growth rates of various insurance companies in December differ, likely due to different strategies and base differences related to the year-end/end-of-year approaches. In terms of new business, in 2024, Ping An individual insurance's new single premiums increased by +8.8% year-on-year, Taiping agents' new insurance business increased by +9.1% year-on-year, and PICC Life's long-term new single premium payment increased by +1.6% year-on-year. Considering the margin improvement brought about by the downward revision of preset interest rates and channel integration, it is expected that the NBV of listed insurance companies will achieve double-digit growth in 2024. Property insurance premiums continue to show stable performance From January to December 2024, the year-on-year growth rates of property insurance premiums of listed insurance companies are as follows: CPIC Property Insurance +6.8% > Ping An Property Insurance +6.5% > PICC Property Insurance +4.3%, with the month of December being: CPIC Property Insurance +4.1% > Ping An Property Insurance +3.4% > PICC Property Insurance -4.4%. In terms of categories, in 2024, the year-on-year growth rates of auto insurance premiums for the three major companies were: Ping An Property Insurance +4.4% > PICC Property Insurance +4.1% > CPIC Property Insurance +3.7%, with the month of December showing a +5.6% year-on-year growth for auto insurance premiums for PICC Property Insurance, likely driven by strong demand for car purchases. The year-on-year growth rates of non-auto insurance premiums for the three major companies in 2024 were: Ping An Property Insurance +11.6% > CPIC Property Insurance +10.5% > PICC Property Insurance +4.6%, with the month of December showing a -31.0% year-on-year change in non-auto insurance premiums for PICC Property Insurance, mainly due to a decrease of 1.66 billion in agricultural insurance premiums, likely affected by changes in premium calculation methods. Investment recommendations: Stock recommendations for CHINA TAIPING (00966), Ping An Insurance (02318,601318.SH), with a suggestion to pay attention to New China Life Insurance (01336,601336.SH), China Pacific Insurance (02601,601601.SH), China Life Insurance (02628,601628.SH), and to focus on the long-term investment value of PICC P&C (02328). Risk warning: Decline in product attractiveness; market fluctuations; tightening regulations; economic growth falling short of expectations.