Oriental Huili Asset Management: This year, there is a high possibility that the global economic outlook will remain optimistic, but appropriate protective measures need to be put in place.

Eastern Harvest Asset Management stated in a document that in the environment of moderate economic growth in the United States and economic recovery in Europe, there is a high chance that the global outlook for 2025 will remain favorable. Mild inflation is expected to support domestic consumption within the region, but monetary, fiscal, and international trade policies may cast a shadow over the outlook. Additionally, the trade policies of Trump and Europe's response to them must be clarified further. Prior to this, the firm believes investors should consider maintaining protective measures and other stable sources while seizing opportunities brought by the stable atmosphere, attractive valuations, and stable US economy. Eastern Harvest Asset Management expressed that in 2024, the market was lifted by positive news regarding the economy, corporate profits, and political environment, but occasionally faced unexpected news. Looking ahead, the market will be influenced by various factors, including profit momentum, slowing US economic growth, labor market restructuring but not dramatic deterioration, among others. On the other hand, the Fed is taking a stronger stance, and Trump's trade position and international reactions may trigger market volatility. Beyond the US, economic growth and decision-making in Europe, as well as China's approach to domestic issues, will also impact the market. Trump's fiscal and foreign trade policies will affect market inflation expectations and yield volatility, especially the long end of the yield curve, prompting the Fed to remain vigilant against any risks to its inflation target. Worries about economic growth may pose multiple challenges for the European Central Bank, according to the firm. However, the good news is that the speed of inflation decline may outpace the central bank's expectations, thereby supporting real income. The above situation shows that investors must continue to manage their portfolios flexibly. In addition, corporate credit in Europe, the US, and emerging markets can also provide income opportunities. Eastern Harvest Asset Management pointed out that the pro-cyclical upturn in the United States and Europe over the past few months has reinforced the view that the economy will not suffer a recession. For the market, this is a positive scenario as long as corporate profits continue to meet expectations. However, this situation may also lead to speculation and overheating in certain areas, and any disappointing profit performance will severely impact valuations. In Europe, a decline in inflation will boost real income and stimulate consumption. This is slightly favorable for European stocks, as valuations seem to have already factored in most of the bad news. However, we try to balance this by prioritizing the financial strength, pricing power, and profit capabilities of stocks in the US, Europe, Japan, and emerging markets that are being driven by fundamental factors.