200 accounts have not been seconds? Honghu private equity's new product is being snapped up, and the sustainability of all-in government bond performance is being questioned.

Recently, Liang Wentao, jokingly referred to by investors as "Brother Ex-Husband," has once again sparked discussion. Industry insiders revealed that Liang Wentao's new fund products are selling like hotcakes, with investors competing to buy them. "The 200 new accounts launched by Honghu Liangbo are all sold out!" the insider said. Financial Association reporters found that Honghu Private Equity achieved impressive results in 2024, with the average return of its products reaching 66.83% last year, and the median return reaching 85.74%. The outstanding performance explains why the new products are in high demand. The insider also pointed out, "Liang Wentao's good performance in 2024 was a result of the right timing and circumstances. It is still uncertain whether he can replicate his success in 2025." Looking at the data for 2025, it seems that Honghu Private Equity's products have hit the brakes, with Private Equity Ranking Network data showing that out of 6 comparable products, the annual returns are around 1-2%. Last year, Honghu Private Equity's average return exceeded 60%, leading to a significant increase in scale. Public information shows that Honghu Private Equity, founded by Liang Wentao in March 2010, focuses on systematic macro strategies. Based on the macro strategy research system and the quantitative timing model provided by Honghu, Honghu determines the investment allocation of various asset classes based on comprehensive research factors such as the macroeconomic cycle, money supply, market valuation levels, macro policy orientation, and market sentiment, in order to obtain returns from asset allocation. It also uses quantitative models to select varieties for timing trades, optimizing investment returns and risk drawdowns. According to the Private Equity Ranking Network data, Honghu Private Equity has 6 comparable products, with an average return of 66.83%. Specifically, the highest performing product last year was Honghu Stable Macro Hedge, with a return of 88.23%, and two other products managed by Liang Wentao, Honghu Stable Macro Strategy 5th and 6th phases, had returns of 85.91% and 85.57% respectively. Another product managed by Liang, Honghu Gaoteng Boyu 2nd phase macro strategy, as well as Honghu Gaoteng Boyu macro strategy managed jointly with Shi Yiwei, had returns of over 25% last year. Honghu Hongfu Positive Allocation 1st phase was established in May last year, and achieved a cumulative return of 40.41%. Such impressive performance not only led to a frenzy of investors rushing to buy the new products but also resulted in rapid growth in the scale of Honghu Private Equity last year. According to Private Equity Ranking Network data, by the end of 2023, the scale of Honghu Private Equity was in the range of 10-20 billion yuan, but by 2024, the scale had grown to 20-50 billion yuan, achieving significant growth. Will the performance be sustainable? Behind the frenzy of new product launches, some investors have raised questions about whether Honghu Private Equity's performance can be sustained. It is worth mentioning that in a letter to investors released at the beginning of the year, Liang Wentao stated, "2024 was a year in which the Honghu systematic macro strategy was tested by the market and a year of our accumulated efforts bearing fruit. In this year, we were lucky to receive the attention and recognition of many investors. Many investor friends, in their interactions with Honghu, began to understand the importance of the 'diversified' investment philosophy in asset allocation. This is not only an iteration of investment philosophy but also a two-way dedication between us and investors." Regarding Liang Wentao's "diversified" approach, some investors have expressed skepticism. Some say he is "all-in government bonds," while others question whether the performance can be sustained by relying on heavy investments in government bond futures. Some have pointed out that last year's main source of income for Honghu was government bond futures, and the high returns are unlikely to be repeated in the short term. From a background analysis perspective, in 2024, China's economy was in a transition period from old to new growth models, with a slowing overall growth rate. To hedge against the systemic risks brought about by the slowdown in economic growth, the central bank increased counter-cyclical adjustments to ensure stable market liquidity. With dual support from fundamentals and monetary policy, the bond market saw an unexpected bull market last year, with the annual return of the continuous 30-year government bond futures reaching 17%. In terms of Honghu Private Equity's performance attribution, bonds also accounted for a significant proportion. In terms of performance, as of 1 January, the Honghu Stable Macro Hedge, which had the highest return last year, had a return of 2.85% and a net value of 7.83. The other two products that achieved over 80% returns last year, Honghu Stable Macro Strategy 5th and 6th phases had returns of 2.78% and 1.82% respectively this year. The return for Honghu Gaoteng Boyu 2nd phase macro strategy was 1.49%. In recent public comments, Liang Wentao emphasized adopting a more balanced allocation in 2025 to cope well with high volatility markets. Looking ahead to 2025, market opportunities may present a more balanced situation, with opportunities in stocks, bonds, and commodities markets, but overall, it is unlikely to see significantly trending markets. From a macro perspective, 2025 will be a year with strong policy drive and maintaining loose monetary policy. However, effective demand in the real economy remains insufficient to generate a one-sided market trend. Therefore, Liang Wentao believes the market is more likely to experience a volatile situation, and a more reasonable strategy would be a combination of defense and counterattack. In terms of research direction, Liang Wentao stated that in 2025, he will focus on commodity markets. He pointed out that, apart from precious metals, most bulk commodities have gradually converged in volatility over the past three years and are currently at historically low volatility levels. Therefore, he believes that 2025 may be an important year for positioning in the commodity sector. Liang Wentao specifically mentioned that the volatility of the commodity sector in 2025 is likely to increase significantly. In terms of varieties, he pointed out that precious metals, which have performed well in the past three years, may enter a high volatility phase in 2025. This article is reproduced from "Financial Association", edited by GMTEight: Liu Xuan.