Haitong: Maintains the "Outperform" rating for LI AUTO-W (02015) with a fair value of 104.95-112.45 Hong Kong dollars.

Haitong released a research report stating that LI AUTO-W (02015) maintained a "outperform the market" rating, with the company's revenue expected to reach 145.1/205.2/248.7 billion yuan in 2024/25/26 respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 7.5/13.9/20.8 billion yuan and EPS of 3.54/6.57/9.78 yuan. The reasonable price range is between 104.95-112.45 Hong Kong dollars. Main points from Haitong: - Ideal car released the fast report on production and sales in December 2024. - The company delivered a total of 59,000 new cars in December, an increase of 16.2% year-on-year and 20% month-on-month, with the monthly delivery volume reaching a record high. The total number of new cars delivered in 2024 exceeded 500,000 units, an increase of 33% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, the company delivered 159,000 new cars, an increase of 20% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month. - On January 16, 2025, OTA 7.0 started full-scale push, with end-to-end +VLM expanding to high-speed and ring road scenarios, optimistic about the continuous driving of smart driving towards high-endization. - With the full push of the Ideal car's NOA in July 2024 and further upgrade of active safety capabilities, the proportion of orders for the ADMax version continues to increase. Among cars priced at over 300,000 yuan, the sales of ADMax version account for close to 70%. On October 23, 2024, the Ideal car's end-to-end +VLM dual-system intelligent driving solution was fully pushed with the OTA 6.4 version of the vehicle system. On January 16, 2025, OTA 7.0 started full push, expanding end-to-end +VLM to high-speed and ring road scenarios, and also launching the AI reasoning visualization function. According to the Ideal car official account, in 2024, the total smart driving mileage of the company reached 1.72 billion kilometers, accounting for 10% of the total driving mileage; smart parking accumulated 77.858 million times, and active safety functions successfully avoided potential accidents 3.386 million times. The bank is optimistic that the strengthening of smart capabilities will further drive the increase in sales of high-end configurations. - The dual-power strategy is accelerating, and the dealer network is rapidly expanding. - According to the fast report on production and sales in December 2024, the company has put into use 1,727 Ideal ultra-fast charging stations, an increase of 592 from the previous month, and has 9,100 charging piles, an increase of 3,420 from the previous month. The Ideal car channel is rapidly expanding, with a total of 502 retail centers as of the end of December 2024, covering 150 cities across the country, an increase of 27 from the previous month; there are a total of 478 after-sales maintenance centers and authorized body spray centers, covering 225 cities, an increase of 27 from the previous month. - The company firmly establishes the enterprise vision of "AI enterprise" and embraces AI intelligence. - According to the Ideal car official account, the company's R&D investment exceeds 10 billion yuan per year, with nearly 50% invested in AI research and development. From December 25 to 27, 2024, the Ideal car held "2024 Ideal AITalk" for three consecutive days, officially releasing the AI large model product "Ideal Classmate". The Ideal Classmate App was fully launched on December 27, extending from the vehicle to the mobile phone. - The German R&D center officially established, taking the first step in global R&D strategy. - On January 17, 2025, Ideal car's first overseas R&D center was established in Munich, Germany. The German R&D center will cooperate with the Chinese R&D team, focusing on next-generation technology research in four areas: forward-looking styling design, power semiconductors, intelligent chassis, and electric drive. At the same time, the German R&D center will also help the Ideal car understand the European market, establish development and testing capabilities based on European automotive regulations, and localize to adapt to user needs. Risk warning: New car sales may fall short of expectations; raw material prices may rise sharply; the investment in pure electric vehicle models may exceed expectations.