China Securities Co., Ltd.: What policies did Trump implement on his first day in office?
22/01/2025
GMT Eight
China Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that on his first day in office in 2025, Trump implemented multiple executive orders that could reshape the policy landscape in the United States. The core goal is to reverse Biden administration policies and strengthen nationalism and traditional values. Trump takes a tough stance on tariffs, immigration, energy, international organizations, and other key areas, attempting to push forward his agenda quickly through executive power, but faces many legal and practical challenges. This move may exacerbate social divisions in the United States, have a far-reaching impact on the global political and economic landscape, and attract widespread attention and responses from the international community.
Events:
During his campaign, Trump promised to implement a series of policies on his first day in office. On his first day in office, Trump announced over 100 executive orders, involving tariff policies, border security, immigration enforcement, energy development, and announced the repeal of many executive orders issued by the Biden administration. Trump's team and Republican members of Congress are reportedly raising about $100 billion for these plans.
Trump's policies include: in terms of tariffs, issuing a tariff memorandum and establishing a foreign tax bureau; in energy and the economy, reducing household energy costs, ending electric vehicle mandates and green new deal, and repealing offshore drilling bans; in immigration, forcibly deporting illegal immigrants, challenging the principle of birthright citizenship, and abolishing policies limiting the arrest of "undocumented immigrants"; in exiting international organizations, withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization; and in other areas, including granting amnesty to the Capitol rioters in 2021, ending the Russia-Ukraine war as soon as possible, and abolishing transgender student protections.
However, these policies may face legal challenges, operational difficulties, and opposition from the international community: the delay in implementing tariff policies reflects internal disagreements within the government; reducing household energy costs may face a lengthy process; electric vehicle mandates could have a negative impact on the U.S. automotive industry and face industry opposition; repealing offshore drilling bans will face serious legal obstacles; policies such as using the military to deport illegal immigrants, challenging birthright citizenship, and abolishing restrictions on arresting "undocumented immigrants" may challenge U.S.-Mexico relations and face opposition from local governments and the international community; exiting the Paris Climate Agreement severely undermines global efforts to combat climate change, worsens the world's climate environment, and arouses international displeasure; exiting the World Health Organization damages the atmosphere of international cooperation and invites criticism from many countries; pardoning the Capitol rioters may affect U.S. political stability; ending the Russia-Ukraine war quickly is challenging and daunting; and abolishing transgender student protections will provoke protests in many areas.
Summary:
1. Overview
During his campaign, Trump repeatedly mentioned a series of campaign promises that he would fulfill on his first day in office. Currently, Trump was inaugurated on January 20th and announced in his inaugural speech a series of policies that could have an impact on the global economy and capital markets. Trump signed over 100 executive orders on his first day in office, reiterating priorities such as tariff policies, border security, immigration enforcement measures, and energy development. Additionally, Trump has already repealed, and is expected to continue to repeal many executive orders issued by the Biden administration, and will take large-scale enforcement actions to deport illegal immigrants currently in the United States, complete the construction of the U.S.-Mexico border wall, and establish immigration detention facilities. Reports indicate that Trump's team and Republican members of Congress are raising about $100 billion for these plans. Over the next few months, in campaign rallies, interviews, victory speeches, press releases, and on social media, Trump has opened the curtain on the administrative actions he plans to take on his first day in office. Overall, Trump values his campaign promises and takes timely action to implement them after taking office, but some promises exceed his presidential authority or are limited by international conditions, so the success rate and effect of these promises may be discounted, and the time to achieve these promises may also be later than expected. This article summarizes the executive orders that Trump promised and signed on his first day in office, some of which will require legislative action by Congress, while others may face legal challenges or requirements and need to take action after inauguration.
2. Policies Trump may roll out
(1) Tariffs
On January 20th, Trump told the media that he was not yet ready to impose universal tariffs on goods from around the world. According to CNBC, Trump currently plans to issue a memorandum directing federal agencies to assess the economic and trade relations between the United States and China, Mexico, and Canada, including evaluating China's compliance with the trade agreement reached with the United States in 2020, as well as the situation of the USMCA. The postponement of tariff policies may indicate internal divisions within the new administration over Trump's trade plans. His nominee for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bennett, believes that tariffs are not "one size fits all." However, more advisors hold protectionist positions, such as Stephen Miller, the policy deputy whom Trump appointed, who suggested that Trump declare a national emergency in order to raise tariffs across the board as promised during the campaign.
At the inauguration, Trump also stated, "We are establishing a foreign tax bureau to levy tariffs, duties, and all income from foreign countries. This will bring a large amount of foreign funds into our treasury." The foreign tax bureau is a new federal agency he proposed to establish, and it is currently not entirely clear how it differs from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which is responsible for levying tariffs.
Previously, the market expected the United States to escalate its trade war with China after Trump took office, but Trump's remarks at the inauguration are generally better than market expectations. In addition to the phone call between the leaders of China and the United States before, and Trump's statement that he hopes to visit China within 100 days after taking office, positive signals show that the risk of the U.S.-China trade war may be lower than market expectations, and the impact of future tariff policies may be mitigated.
(2) Energy and Economy
Reduce household energy costs. On October 21, 2024, Trump said at a campaign rally in Albuquerque, New Mexico, "On my first day in office, I will sign executive orders directing all federal agencies to immediately repeal regulations that have caused prices of goods to skyrocket." In addition, Trump promised to cut household energy costs by 50% in the first year.On the day of his inauguration, Trump stated, "I will instruct all members of my cabinet to gather the enormous power they possess to defeat record-breaking inflation and swiftly lower costs and prices."Arresting "undocumented immigrants" at locations such as churches, hospitals, schools, as well as at special occasions such as funerals, weddings, and public demonstrations, is aimed at increasing the speed at which the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency arrests immigrants nationwide. Based on Trump's previous references to the Alien and Sedition Acts of 1798, it is speculated that Trump is likely to treat illegal immigrants as enemies to be "eradicated," similar to how the US treated Japanese Americans during World War II.
The negative impact of public health crises in various countries not only damages global public health efforts, but also poses a threat to public health security within the United States and harms the country's international image.()
Pardon the rioters of the 2021 Capitol Hill riots. On January 20, Trump signed an executive order pardoning nearly all of the 1,270 people convicted in connection with the Capitol Hill riots, directing the U.S. Department of Justice to dismiss approximately 300 pending cases, and ordering the release of 4 defendants charged in the most serious incitement to insurrection cases. These actions may have exceeded the expectations of individuals including Trump advisors and allies. Vice President Pence and House Speaker Johnson had previously stated that Trump should only pardon non-violent offenders. This action also went beyond Trump's previous statements that there might be some exceptions to pardons. However, the actual proclamation he signed, a "full, complete, and unconditional pardon," covered around 600 individuals convicted of assaulting or impeding law enforcement during the riots. Granting amnesty to the defendants in the Capitol Building riots may wrongly encourage individuals to incite disorder or violence for the president, or may to some extent affect the political stability of the United States.
End the Russia-Ukraine war as soon as possible. As early as May 11, 2023, Trump stated that he would end the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours of taking office as president. On April 7, 2024, Trump declared that if elected, he would pressure Ukraine to end the war between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours by relinquishing some territory. In fact, Trump has long promised to end the war in Ukraine shortly after taking office. But in recent weeks, he admitted it to be a daunting task: "I think actually (finding peace in the Middle East) is harder than Russia-Ukraine situation," Trump said at a press conference in December 2024. "I think that's harder." According to Reuters, when asked on January 7 if he could end the Russia-Ukraine conflict within six months, Trump said, "I hope to have six months, no, I think, I hope far less than six months." Furthermore, Keith Kellogg, Trump's nominated special envoy for Ukraine and Russia issues, told Fox News on the 8th that his goal was to stop the conflict within "100 days." In his inauguration speech on January 20, Trump made no mention of Ukraine and did not address how to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war, but claimed "we will be a country that is different, full of compassion, courage, and excellence. Our power will stop all wars." According to the latest report from CNN on the 21st, Trump plans to meet with Russian President Putin and hopes to end the Ukraine crisis soon.
Abolish transgender student protections. Trump announced that he hoped to stop the "transgender madness" advocated by many progressives and liberals from his first day in office on January 20. In a speech on December 23 of the previous year, Trump stated that he would "put a stop to the 'transgender insanity' with a stroke of the pen on his first day in office." On January 20, he stated that "this week, I will also end the government's attempt to social engineer race and gender into all aspects of public and private life," "From today on, the official policy of the U.S. government will be only two genders: male and female." Prior to this, Trump also said, "I will sign executive orders excluding transgender individuals from the military and from elementary, junior high, and high schools." In addition, Trump specifically mentioned that he would "exclude males from girls' sports," meaning Trump would prohibit transgender individuals from participating in girls' sports. However, protests have already erupted in various parts of the United States, and it remains to be seen if Trump can withstand pressure to push forward with the policy.