Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures rise together, Trump's inauguration speech reveals multiple important policies, Netflix (NFLX.US) announces its earnings report after the market closes.

1. Before the US stock market opened on January 21 (Tuesday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose together. As of the time of writing, the Dow Jones futures rose by 0.38%, the S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.45%, and the Nasdaq futures rose by 0.51%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index fell by 0.15%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.06%, the French CAC 40 index rose by 0.11%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.05%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell by 2.30%, to $75.61 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 1.48%, to $78.96 per barrel. Market News Trump announced several major policies in his inauguration speech. On January 20, 2025, Trump announced a series of policies in his inauguration speech, covering areas such as immigration, tariffs, and energy. He plans to declare a national emergency at the southern border, reinstating the "Remain in Mexico" policy and deporting millions of illegal immigrants. In terms of trade, Trump stated that he will reform the trade system, establish an external tax collection agency, and impose tariffs on imported products. He also declared a national energy emergency, increasing traditional energy extraction and revoking electric vehicle incentives. Additionally, Trump signed an executive order to delay the TikTok ban for 75 days for reevaluation. These policies have had a significant impact on the capital markets. In the short term, the US dollar index initially plummeted due to the uncertainty of the tariff policy but then rebounded after the signing of the executive order. Disappointment over policy details led to a correction in the US stock market, with traditional energy companies expected to benefit. Trump lifts LNG export ban, causing significant changes in the European natural gas market. US President Donald Trump recently lifted the ban on new permits for US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, easing long-term uncertainty in global gas supply and causing fluctuations in European natural gas prices. Benchmark futures continued to fluctuate after rising over 2% on the previous trading day. Trump revoked a measure implemented by his predecessor, President Biden, in January 2024, which suspended the approval of new permits for US LNG exports. This move paves the way for companies to apply for new permits. Trump also urged the EU to increase its purchases of American oil and gas to avoid potential tariff risks. Currently, the US is the largest LNG supplier to Europe. Trump changes tariff stance, causing a 180-degree reversal in forex option traders' strategies within a day! After withdrawing from bullish USD option trades in less than a day, some leveraged funds returned to bullish USD option trades on Tuesday due to Trump's updated tariff stance. Following Trump's announcement of plans to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Mexico and Canada by February 1, some hedge funds returned to the currency options market on Tuesday, expecting their value to rise if the USD strengthens against other currencies (especially the CAD). Just a few hours earlier, these hedge funds exited similar trades when Trump seemed to postpone further tariffs on trading partners. Barclays PLC Sponsored ADR's Asia forex options head in Singapore, Mukund Daga, stated: "The market is still figuring out how to trade the series of orders executed by Trump." Guggenheim: The Fed will cut rates approximately once per quarter this year, with a total of up to 100 basis points. Guggenheim Partners' Chief Investment Officer Anna Walsh told foreign media at the start of the World Economic Forum in Davos on Monday that the Federal Reserve may cut rates approximately once per quarter in 2025, with an overall reduction of around 75 basis points for the year, possibly even up to a full percentage point. Additionally, the Fed will continue to cut rates, albeit at a slower pace than expected. Traders' bets on multiple rate cuts this year have shifted from at least three cuts a month ago to only one cut, with uncertainty about the possibility of a second cut. Walsh stated that as long as the USD remains strong as a reserve currency, the US will continue to attract capital, and the tariffs expected to be imposed by incoming President Trump may not be as severe as anticipated by most. The average tariff increase will not exceed 10% and will vary depending on the country. Trump's presidency increases uncertainty, prompting rapid verbal intervention by Japan's top monetary official. Japan's top currency official, Junichiro Mimura, said on Tuesday that Japan is closely monitoring positions in the currency market, including those based on speculative positions, due to the undesirable volatility in exchange rates. Mimura stated that the uncertainty surrounding US President Trump's economic policies may affect the market in unpredictable ways, highlighting the difficulty of predicting whether the USD will continue its general upward trend. When guiding exchange rate policy, authorities pay more attention to volatility than to the level of the yen. When asked about the policy meeting of the Bank of Japan this week, Mimura stated that the government and the central bank are in constant communication through various channels. According to insiders, unless Trump causes any market disruptions, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates on Friday, bringing short-term borrowing costs to the highest level since the global financial crisis of 2008. Individual Stock News United Microelectronics Corp. Sponsored ADR (UMC.US) reported a profit of NT$8.5 billion in the fourth quarter, a decrease of 35.6% year-on-year. United Microelectronics Corp. Sponsored ADR announced its operating results for the fourth quarter of 2024, with a profit of NT$8.5 billion for the quarter, a decrease of 41% quarter-on-quarter and 35.6% year-on-year, reaching its lowest point since the third quarter of 2020. Earnings per share were NT$0.68, with a gross profit margin of 30.4% and an operating profit margin of 19.8%. Co-General Manager Wang Shi stated that the performance in the fourth quarter of last year met expectations, with wafer shipments and capacity utilization slightly better than expected. The full-year revenue for 2024 increased by 4.4% compared to the previous year, reflecting stable growth in demand for communication, consumer, and computer products. Notably, 22/28-nanometer products still accounted for a significant portion of revenue.The offering will increase by 15% in 2024.New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. Sponsored ADR (EDU.US) reported a 6.2% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the second quarter, reaching $31.931 million. New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. Sponsored ADR announced unaudited financial performance for the second quarter ending on November 30, 2024. Net revenue increased by 19.4% year-on-year to $1.0386 billion, while net revenue (excluding revenue from EAST BUY self-operated products and live e-commerce business) increased by 31.3% year-on-year to $894.2 million. Operating profit decreased by 9.8% year-on-year to $19.3 million, while operating profit (excluding operating losses from EAST BUY self-operated products and live e-commerce business) increased by 102.5% year-on-year to $25 million. Net profit attributable to shareholders also increased by 6.2% year-on-year to $31.931 million. Looking ahead to the financial report, analysts are bullish on Netflix (NFLX.US) with a target price increase to $950 due to advertising subscriptions boosting growth in the fourth quarter. Netflix is set to announce its fourth-quarter performance after market close on Tuesday. Analysts are optimistic about the streaming giant at this crucial juncture, with 14 out of 19 brokerages covering Netflix giving it a "buy" or equivalent rating, while 4 rate it as "hold" and only 1 as "sell". The consensus target price for Netflix is around $905, approximately 6% higher than its closing price on Friday. Wedbush Securities has raised Netflix's target stock price to $950 this week, highlighting the company's nearly insurmountable lead in the streaming market competition. LVMH (LVMUY.US) regains top spot in Europe's market value for the first time since 2023. Luxury goods conglomerate LVMH has seen an 8.3% increase in market value since the beginning of the year, reclaiming the title of the largest market value company in Europe from Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B (NVO.US) - which has seen a decline in market value in recent weeks due to disappointing results from a new experimental weight loss drug. Under Bernard Arnault's leadership, LVMH controls approximately 75 well-known brands in various categories such as fashion, wines and spirits, perfumes and cosmetics, watches and jewelry. These brands include Dior, Givenchy, Tiffany, Sephora, Stella McCartney, Hennessy, TAG Heuer, Bulgari, and Louis Vuitton, among others. Is the iPhone not selling well in China? Sales in China plummeted 18% during the holiday season, while the global market declined by 5%. According to an independent research firm, the iPhone sales in China dropped by 18.2% in the fourth quarter of last year, marking a significant setback in the second largest market after the United States. Apple Inc.'s flagship phone was the best-selling phone in China a year ago, but has now ceded the top spot to Huawei. In the past three months, Apple Inc. has slipped to third place in the world's largest smartphone market, holding about one-sixth of the market share. The decline in the Chinese market led to a 5% drop in global iPhone sales during the key shopping season, highlighting the uneven start of the latest iPhone in the Chinese market, initially showing strong performance but later losing traction. Nissan (NSANY.US) initiates production and job-cutting plan to meet precondition for merger with Honda (HMC.US). As Honda Motor Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR prepares to integrate the troubled Nissan Motor Company into its operations, the latter is speeding up structural adjustments to meet the conditions of the agreement. Reportedly, Nissan Motor will stop production of its AD compact vans in November to cut excess production. A Nissan spokesperson stated that the manufacturing division, Nissan Shatai Co., has not made any decisions regarding job cuts yet and denied an earlier report claiming that hundreds of jobs would be lost once production of this small van stops. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US) responds to earthquake impact: operations gradually recovering. Following a 6.4 magnitude earthquake in rural mountainous areas of southern Taiwan overnight, all of the company's factories have resumed operations with only minor damage and injuries. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR stated that there was immediate evacuation of personnel from the central and southern factory sites, with a complete headcount completed by around 1 a.m. confirming that all personnel were safe. The factories have completed post-earthquake damage inspections and confirmed that the structures are safe, with operations gradually returning to normal. All factory sites have water, electricity, and safe workplace systems in place.And the operation is running normally.Important Economic Data and Events Preview The following day at 5:30 AM Beijing time: API Crude Oil Inventory Change (in thousands of barrels) for the week ending January 17th in the United States. The following day at 2:30 AM Beijing time: Due to the rollover of NYMEX New York Crude Oil February futures, the final trading session will be on January 22nd at 3:30 AM, with the final electronic trading session at 6:00 AM. Please pay attention to announcements regarding contract expiration and rollover to manage risks. Additionally, some trading platforms may have expiration dates for WTI contracts that are typically one day earlier than NYMEX's official date, so please take note. To be determined: The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos will take place until January 24th. Earnings Preview Wednesday morning: Netflix (NFLX.US), Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A (IBKR.US), United Airlines (UAL.US) Wednesday pre-market: Procter & Gamble Company (PG.US), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US), Abbott Laboratories (ABT. US), Halliburton (HAL.US)