Canalys: India's smartphone market will grow by 5% in 2024, with shipments reaching 156 million units.

Canalys reported that in the fourth quarter of 2024, due to manufacturers adjusting their inventory after the holidays, smartphone shipments in India decreased by 4% to 37.2 million units. vivo remained in the top position with 7.5 million units shipped and a 20% market share. Xiaomi followed closely behind with 5.7 million units, ranking second. Samsung held the third position with 5.4 million units. OPPO (excluding OnePlus) and Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) made it to the top five with shipments of 4.2 million and 4 million units respectively. With aggressive promotions and strong holiday demand, Apple Inc. secured the fifth position for the first time. Overall, the Indian smartphone market grew by 5% in 2024, reaching 156 million units shipped. Throughout 2024, the Indian smartphone market experienced a slight growth, mainly driven by the post-pandemic replacement trend and the demand for 5G upgrades. Manufacturers introduced new devices in the first three quarters, with some focusing on higher price segments. However, during the holiday season, brands faced inventory overstock due to weak demand in the mass market. To address this, brands offered significant discounts and increased channel profits to clear inventory and improve stock levels by the end of the year. Canalys Senior Analyst Sanyam Chaurasia stated, "Apple Inc. entered the top five of the Indian smartphone market for the first time, thanks to its continued focus on driving user upgrades and ecosystem strategies. In 2024, with the release of new products by Android manufacturers, competition in the high-end market is becoming increasingly fierce. As a result, Apple Inc. has been particularly active in driving channel-led promotional activities during flagship product launches, iPhone launches, and holiday seasons. In addition to instant cashbacks and discounts, the 'Trade In' program and the 'iPhone for Life' installment plan with zero interest significantly enhanced affordability and boosted user upgrades. Brands are willing to bear the operating costs of these zero-interest plans because they realize that Apple Inc.'s strong brand appeal is a key driver. Looking ahead, Apple Inc. will focus on three key areas: adjusting prices following localized production to drive existing users to upgrade to the Pro series; expanding to lower-tier cities to attract new iOS users, leveraging the high brand appeal of the iPhone; and driving ecosystem demand growth across the market." Chaurasia added, "In the fourth quarter, high channel inventory after the holiday season put pressure on shipment growth, prompting manufacturers to adopt cautious strategies, but the strong growth in shipment value highlighted the robust demand in the high-end market. Limited new product releases and weakened brand momentum allowed channels to focus on clearing existing inventory. Brands like vivo and OPPO maintained strong momentum through diversified channel strategies. vivo excelled online with the T3 series, while its cost-effective Y series saw success offline. OPPO maintained growth momentum by highlighting design and durability in models like the K12x, A3, and F27 series. Meanwhile, the high-end market continued to see steady growth, benefiting from strong demand for Samsung and Apple Inc.'s previous generation models. Despite a slight drop in overall shipments, Samsung's Galaxy S23 and S23 FE saw significant sales, while the iPhone 15 remained in strong demand after its new release. This momentum was driven by channel-led strategies such as attractive trade-in incentives, extended warranties, and zero down payment plans, effectively stimulating consumer interest in the high-value segment." With limited growth drivers and the end of the replacement cycle post-pandemic, Canalys predicts moderate single-digit growth in 2025. Strong demand in the mass market (below $200) and the $100 to $200 price range will continue, mainly driven by the spread of 5G. However, the sub-$100 market faces challenges from macroeconomic pressures, competition from 4G feature phones, and growth in the second-hand market. By the end of 2024, Xiaomi launched the Redmi A4 5G featuring the Snapdragon 4s Gen 2 and supporting SA 5G, but its performance was inconsistent, reflecting ongoing uncertainties. In 2025, the brand is expected to cautiously expand its lineup of sub-$100 5G products while addressing these challenges. In the high-end market, despite the ongoing trend towards premiumization, brands face multiple obstacles. Refurbished high-end devices are gaining appeal, urban consumers are holding onto high-quality devices for longer periods, and upgrade demand is primarily driven by channels rather than strong consumer pull. To sustain growth in the high-end market, brands need to increase investment in consumer education, develop AI-based localized use cases, and optimize retail channels to effectively stimulate upgrade demand.