A-share morning express | A-share opens high and falls low, and the Shanghai Composite Index turns green first! Game and other AI application concepts show strong performance.
21/01/2025
GMT Eight
On January 21st, the three major indexes opened higher collectively again, followed by a market downturn; as of 9:40, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.1%.
In terms of the market, most industries saw more gains than losses, with AI application concepts such as dou bao and gaming leading the market; home appliances and humanoid robotics such as Siasun Robot&Automation performing well. On the downside, the education, agriculture, and oil and gas industries led the market lower.
In terms of main funds, funds favored industries such as semiconductors and optical electronics; while funds exited industries like new metal materials and securities.
Institutional Views
Looking ahead, Orient points out that with the easing of external negative factors, the poor performance of the export chain in the previous period may benefit directly, and internal and external positive factors are gradually accumulating, providing a basis for a rebound before the Spring Festival.
Guotai Junan: The market is expected to gradually stabilize, industry allocation focusing on performance, valuation, and prosperity
Guotai Junan states that the market is expected to gradually stabilize, with industry allocation focusing on performance, valuation, and prosperity. They recommend positioning in industries that have not seen high valuations and have had strong past performance, such as machinery (engineering machinery/Siasun Robot&Automation) and home appliances. They also recommend industries expected to see an upturn in prosperity, such as defense, mass consumption, and semiconductors. They suggest early positioning in the non-bank sector, as the subsequent implementation of monetary policy is expected to drive market rebound.
Huaxi: A-share market will usher in a "spring market" at the end of January and beginning of February
Huaxi believes that the A-share market will usher in a "spring market" at the end of January and beginning of February. With the recent oversold rebound in the A-share market, the major factors that have suppressed market risk appetite have been significantly alleviated: first, the friendly conversation between the leaders of China and the United States and the discussions within the Trump team on incremental tariffs have eased concerns about the tensions between the two major powers, leading to stability in the RMB exchange rate; second, this year's annual report performance forecasts have been disclosed early by companies, releasing performance risks more fully. In addition, the economic growth targets set by various regions during local meetings show a positive outlook, which has also boosted market confidence in stable growth policies. Looking ahead, with the current A-share market in a relatively high configuration value range, as investor risk appetite revives, a round of spring market will gradually unfold, and they suggest actively seizing the opportunity.
BOC International: Growth presents an opportunity for annual allocation
BOC International believes that growth presents an opportunity for annual allocation. They have found that the trend in funding rates measured by DR007 or GC001 is not a decisive factor for the rise or fall of A shares before the Spring Festival since 2017. A more lenient funding environment can provide positive support for A shares: in the years when funding rates declined in 2019, 2021, and 2024, the main A-share indices closed up; but in the years when funding rates increased in 2023 and 2017, the A-share market did not all weaken, and the incremental foreign capital brought by exchange rates and basic expectations became important support for these two pre-holiday A-share rallies.
Currently, there are still many uncertainties in the pre-holiday market, and a wait-and-see sentiment may be strong. However, the current path of broad monetary and fiscal policy is unchanged, the micro liquidity in the market is still passable, the upward trend in the A-share market trend remains unchanged, but the magnitude and pace need to wait for confirmation of loose overall levels and expectations of domestic demand recovery. After the adjustments since the fourth quarter, the short-term repair momentum of growth stocks is strong. Combined with the pre-holiday funding environment, the short-term outlook for growth stocks is relatively advantageous.
Orient: Positive factors gradually accumulate, forming a basis for a pre-Spring Festival rebound
In the short term, thematic investing is active again, with some hotspots such as humanoid robotics Siasun Robot&Automation and AI applications showing strong sustainability, with overall profitability being more evident; in addition, the easing of external negative factors and the direct benefits to the export chains that have previously performed poorly, and the gradual accumulation of internal and external positive factors form the basis for a pre-Spring Festival rebound. In terms of industry allocation, the main line of high-risk preferred varieties focuses on creative medicine and non-ferrous metals; thematic investments focus on central state-owned enterprises' mergers and acquisitions, and technology themes.
Hot Sectors
1. Dou bao concept stocks started strong
Dou bao concept stocks started strong, with Shifeng Cultural Development hitting the limit up, Beijing Haitian Ruisheng Science Technology Ltd. and Hubei Century Network Technology Inc. up by over 5%, and Shenzhen Bluetrum Technology, Espressif Systems, ZTE Corporation, and Richinfo Technology following suit.
Commentary: In terms of news, the Dou bao real-time voice model was officially launched on the 20th, and has been fully open on the Dou bao app. Guotai Junan points out that the overall satisfaction of the Dou bao real-time voice model is significantly higher than that of GPT-4o, especially in terms of naturalness of voice tone and emotional intensity.
2. Siasun Robot&Automation sector sees repeated activity
The Siasun Robot&Automation sector has seen repeated activity, with Shenzhen King Explorer Science And Technology Corporation hitting the limit up for 9 days in a row, while Jikai Equipment Manufacturing had a 6-session streak.Shanghai Hajime Advanced Material Technology rose more than 10%, Zhejiang Changsheng Sliding Bearings, Zhejiang Zhongjian Technology, Guangdong Topstar Technology, Hanwei Electronics Group Corporation and others followed the increase.Review: Recently, Professor Gong Wei, a member of the Provincial Political Consultative Conference and Vice President of Wuhan University, introduced to reporters that Tianwen is moving from the laboratory to the production line, with plans to mass produce by 2025 and create a research and development manufacturing production line. Currently, some supermarkets and catering enterprises are actively seeking cooperation, eagerly anticipating the application of this humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation to terminals.
This article is reprinted from "Tencent Select Stocks", edited by GMTEight: Liu Jiayin.