Under the internal and external troubles, global economy "canary" export growth is weak, but semiconductor exports remain resilient.

Early trade data from South Korea shows weak export growth so far this month. Due to continued political turmoil in South Korea and the return of Donald Trump to the White House casting a shadow over global trade prospects, the South Korean economy, which relies on trade, is facing increasing challenges. Data released by South Korean customs on Tuesday shows that in the first 20 days of January, the total value of exports increased by 1.4% compared to the same period last year after adjusting for differences in working days. In comparison, in December 2024, the export volume increased by 4.3% year-on-year. Unadjusted exports decreased by 5.1%, reflecting fewer working days in January compared to the same period last year. Overall imports decreased by 1.7%, resulting in a trade deficit of $3.8 billion. If Trump implements the tariffs he promised during his campaign, South Korea will be one of the hardest-hit countries. The South Korean economy relies on export-led trade surpluses, making it highly vulnerable to disruptions in global trade. Trump was inaugurated for his second presidential term this Monday after winning the US election in November last year. The South Korean central bank had already lowered its benchmark interest rate in November last year to help the economy withstand Trump's tariff plans. Last week, the Bank of Korea kept the interest rate unchanged and adopted a wait-and-see approach until Trump provides more details on his trade policy. The "emergency order" incident in December last year has significantly weakened consumer and business confidence in South Korea, and the slowdown in export growth has raised concerns among South Korean policymakers. Due to concerns about political turmoil in South Korea, global trade prospects, and soft overseas demand for chips, the South Korean central bank lowered its growth outlook for this year on Monday. Early trade data shows that, excluding working day factors, South Korea's exports to China decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, while exports to the US decreased by 9.6%. South Korea's semiconductor exports grew by 19.2%, while automobile exports declined by 7.3%. Previously released data showed that South Korea's semiconductor exports grew by 31.5% year-on-year in December last year. Semiconductors are the biggest driver of South Korea's exports. South Korea is home to the two largest memory chip manufacturers in the world, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which export advanced semiconductors to American companies like Nvidia. Other South Korean companies are deeply integrated into the global supply chain, including automobiles, rechargeable batteries, shipbuilding, and refined oil. It is understood that South Korea's export data serves as a barometer of global demand levels. South Korea is also one of the first major export economies to release monthly trade data, providing important clues for investors to understand the health of global demand and is thus considered the "canary in the coal mine" of the global economy.