China Securities Co.,Ltd.: Policy and fundamentals resonate, optimistic about the upward potential of non-bank sectors.
21/01/2025
GMT Eight
Recently, China Securities Co., Ltd.'s non-bank team published a research report stating that they are optimistic about the post-market non-bank sector's upward repair space and recommend investors to position themselves at a low level and keep an eye on it. In terms of insurance, they suggest focusing on the property insurance sector with significant high dividend characteristics, and life insurance is expected to benefit from the continuing optimization of the policy environment, with high-quality development in sight. With the implementation and effectiveness of a series of steady growth policies, equity investment is expected to contribute to performance flexibility.
Regarding the Hong Kong market and Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the team stated that January's Hong Kong stock trading has improved, with ample upside potential.
Securities: The team is optimistic about the post-market sector's upward repair space and recommends investors to position themselves at a low level and keep an eye on it. In terms of performance, 15 securities companies have already announced their 2024 performance forecasts, with 12 of them expecting profit growth. Considering the base effect from last year's Q1, industry profits are expected to continue exceeding expectations before the first-quarter report, with limited downside in valuations. In terms of policies, the convenience of securities and fund institutions' exchange has formally started the second batch, and various policies continue to strengthen, maintaining and boosting investor confidence. The securities sector is gradually accumulating upward momentum.
Insurance: They suggest focusing on the property insurance sector with significant high dividend characteristics, and life insurance is expected to benefit from the continued optimization of the policy environment, with high-quality development in sight. With a series of steady growth policies being implemented and taking effect, equity investment is expected to contribute to performance flexibility. Given the resonance of policies, macroeconomic conditions, and a relatively loose liquidity environment, the stock market's performance is poised to improve, leading to improvements in total investment income and profits of insurance companies. Additionally, if the macroeconomic recovery exceeds expectations, long-term interest rates are also likely to rise, so continuous attention is recommended.
In the Hong Kong market and Hong Kong Stock Exchange view: January's Hong Kong stock trading has improved, with ample upside potential as incremental policies continue to be introduced, and the domestic economy stabilizes and recovers. Since January, the Hong Kong stock market has adjusted, with the Hang Seng Index down by 2.37% and the Hang Seng TECH Index up by 0.25%. Overall, the Hong Kong market has underperformed the MSCI World Index, with a gain of +1.89%. As of January 17th, the overall market value of Hong Kong stocks was 34.29 trillion Hong Kong dollars, down by 2.92% from the end of December; trading activity has increased since January, with an ADT of 151.083 billion Hong Kong dollars, up by 6.49% month-on-month. Among them, Southbound funds ADT increased by 1.51%, accounting for 22.20%.
Risk warning: Severe macroeconomic fluctuations, low trading activity in capital markets, and significant policy changes.