Ping An Securities: Clothing brands may usher in a new round of market trends before the holidays, focusing on two investment themes.
20/01/2025
GMT Eight
Ping An Securities released a research report stating that based on the logic of optional consumption recovery, clothing manufacturing and export-related companies may usher in opportunities, and clothing and home outbound enterprises may continue to enjoy dividends. At the same time, after valuation adjustments, clothing brand companies may usher in a new round of market trends. Focus on two investment themes.
Ping An Securities' main points are as follows:
Theme 1: From top to bottom, select top companies in market share improvement and with valuation cost-effective in segmented sub-markets. Among them, it is recommended to pay attention to investment opportunities in export-related clothing manufacturing enterprises. Recommended to focus on: SHENZHOU INTL (02313), Huali Industrial Group (300979.SZ), Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development (002003.SZ), etc.
Theme 2: From bottom to top, select blue-chip stocks with strong earnings certainty and high dividend yield. It is recommended to focus on clothing brand companies with marginal improvements, and home textile top companies with stable dividend payout ratios. Recommended to focus on: ANTA SPORTS (02020), BOSIDENG (03998), etc.
This week's changes
Last week, the textile and apparel sector rose by 3.16%, the light industry sector rose by 3.25%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 2.14% during the same period. Among the Shanghai and Shenwan level 1 industries, all sectors rose, with no sectors falling, with the textile and apparel industry ranking 20th in terms of rise and fall, and the light industry manufacturing industry ranking 19th in terms of rise and fall.
Key companies to watch
SHENZHOU INTL: The world's largest vertically integrated clothing manufacturer. In the medium to long term, the advantage of the "fabric + clothing" vertical integration is prominent, with high production efficiency and strong management capabilities. At the same time, due to the concentration of orders from international major customers to top suppliers, the company's share of core customers is expected to maintain a high level. In the short term, the continuous growth of core customer orders, as well as the volume of new customer orders, are expected to positively impact performance.
Huali Industrial Group: A leading manufacturer of global sports and casual footwear. The company has outstanding advantages in capacity utilization, production efficiency, cost control, research and design, and has a diversified customer structure with long-term stable cooperation with core customers. As the destocking of major customers steadily progresses, the company's order volume is expected to experience a repair-type growth.
Wuhu Fuchun Dye and Weave (605189.SH): A leading global sock yarn company. The company's production model is mainly based on "warehouse production, order-based production", which ensures cost control and stable delivery times, conducive to the company's long-term sustainable development. In addition, capacity expansion and order growth are expected to bring steady improvements in performance.
Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group (603558.SH): A leading global manufacturer of cotton socks and seamless knit sportswear. 1) In terms of cotton socks, the gradual destocking of overseas brand customers may lead to improvements in the company's order volume; 2) In terms of seamless products, the company actively develops new customers and optimizes the customer structure. With the increase in capacity utilization, profit margin recovery may have certain elasticity. Clothing brand:
BOSIDENG: A leading domestic down jacket company. In the medium to long term, BOSIDENG's down jacket brand strength continues to improve, with room for further market share increase. In the short term, the company continues to iterate and upgrade down jacket products and supplement summer sun protection garments and other functional apparel categories to broaden the product matrix, conducive to the continuous growth of the company's performance. In addition, the company focuses on improving store efficiency and quality, motivating front-line sales personnel through refined operations to maximize store efficiency. We are optimistic about the sustainability of the company's performance under the logic of rising down jacket volume and price.
Hla Group Corp., (600398.SH): A leading men's casual wear company. The main brand's offline and online channels are performing well, with steady expansion in overseas markets; other brands continue to optimize development and are expected to gradually restore profits; the restructuring of the group buying business is expected to break through growth constraints. Steady growth of the main brand will benefit the stable development of the company's performance, high dividend level, and certain valuation cost-effectiveness.
Baoxiniao Holding (002154.SZ): A leading company in the mid-to-high-end men's wear sector, with a complete brand matrix and layout, including Baoxiniao Holding's main brand and mid-to-high-end men's wear brand Haggar. The logic of both volume and price increase of Haggar brand is the focus of the company's future: 1) Store efficiency growth, due to product matrix and store upgrades, may improve the product turnover rate and associate rate, thereby bringing continual improvement in store efficiency; 2) Increase in the number of stores, the Haggar brand has a large space for opening new stores, the company's speed of opening new stores is expected to remain in double digits, or continue to enhance the improvement of the company's performance.
Shenzhen Fuanna Bedding and Furnishing (002327.SZ): A leading home textile company, the company has increased its efforts to open offline stores after the epidemic, increasing the number of franchise stores. We believe that the growth of franchise store performance is beneficial to the enhancement of the company's performance. In addition, the company's low valuation and high dividend characteristics are obvious, with certain defensive attributes.
Risk warning:
1) Changes in consumer preferences. The trend of clothing consumption is difficult to determine, if clothing brand companies cannot grasp fashion trends in a timely manner, it may lead to decreased brand stickiness with consumers, resulting in loss of foot traffic and declining performance.
2) Channel inventory backlog risk. There is still uncertainty in the consumption environment, if the turnover rate of seasonal goods is insufficient, it may lead to backlog of terminal channel inventory, and bring a certain operational risk to the company's benign development.
3) Uncertainty in overseas demand. Although the products of clothing outbound companies have relatively high cost-effectiveness, the overseas market still poses uncertainty, which may bring certain uncertainties to the performance of light industry and textile and apparel outbound companies.