A-share market express at the opening | the three major stock indexes collectively opened higher, with the education, copper cable high-speed connection, film and television theaters and other sectors leading the gains.

date
20/01/2025
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GMT Eight
Stock A's three major stock indexes collectively opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.44% and the Growth Enterprise Market Index up 1.11%. On the plate, the education, copper cable high-speed connection, film and television theater, and the annual report forecast increase and other sectors led the gains. Institution's Outlook: Huaxi: A spring market rally may be brewing, with AI, humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation, and other themes still the main focus. Huaxi believes that the previous decline in A shares was mainly due to overseas inflation concerns rather than domestic economic fundamentals. From the beginning of the year to now, the global trend of major asset classes reflects the capital market's concerns about re-inflation under the "Trump 2.0" policy: within the major asset classes, commodities have shown the strongest trends, with a significant increase in crude oil, precious metals, and industrial metals; the US dollar index broke through 110, and the 10-year US bond yield returned to around 4.9%; the Sino-US interest rate differential widened again, putting pressure on the yuan exchange rate against the dollar; the sharp rise in US bond yields suppressed risk asset valuations, with emerging markets facing capital outflow pressure while A shares and Hong Kong stocks showed weak trends. Looking back at the period when the 10-year US bond yields continued to rise in October 2023, investors also worried about US inflation and revised down expectations for a US interest rate cut, leading to a temporary pressure on global stock markets. In terms of domestic economic fundamentals, financial data released by the central bank showed that in December, new social financing and new RMB loans exceeded market expectations, indicating continued loose macro liquidity. Investment Strategy: The pace of spring is gradually approaching, and "new quality leaders" remain the main focus of allocation. With the central bank stabilizing the exchange rate, the China Securities Regulatory Commission reiterating the importance of stabilizing the stock market, and the US discussing incremental tariffs, the yuan exchange rate against the US dollar has stabilized, easing investors' concerns about negative factors affecting A shares. In addition, there are signs of improvement in market micro-liquidity, with trading volume in the two markets reaching over a trillion yuan in the past two trading days, and margin funds turning back to net buying. Looking ahead, after the inauguration of US President Trump, A shares are expected to trade on the policy expectations of the "Two Sessions" once again, with a spring market rally possibly brewing. In terms of industry allocation, themes related to "new quality leaders" remain the main focus of the spring market: AI+, humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation, low-altitude economy, domestic substitution, etc. Orient: There are no new negative factors in the market, and inactive trading remains a feature at the end of the year. After digesting profit-taking, the market is expected to continue to rebound. Orient stated that the three major stock indexes rebounded slightly in the previous trading day, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.28%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.41%, the Growth Enterprise Market Index up 0.66%, and the BSE 50 Index up 2.04%. Commercial department stores, home appliances, non-ferrous metals, mining, coal, and computer equipment sectors led the gains, while the semiconductor sector saw declines. The total trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen reached 1.27 trillion yuan, with Northbound trading reaching 19.3 billion yuan. The market rose and fell throughout the day, with all three indexes closing higher, hot spots rotating quickly, with more stocks rising than falling, and large consumption stocks showing strength, including home appliances, retail, food, e-commerce, and other sectors showing active performance. With a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy expectations, stimulating domestic demand is seen as an important engine for economic development. The release of notices on "trading in old appliances for new ones by 2025" and "subsidy implementation plan for new purchases of mobile phones, tablets, smartwatches (bracelets)" by the Ministry of Commerce and other departments can be seen as strong support for national subsidy policies for consumption. The fiercely competitive home appliance industry is expected to be one of the most beneficial consumer categories this year, and the market may return to a trend of consumption upgrades. Leading companies in related sub-industries are likely to enjoy higher premiums. In addition, concepts such as Little Red Book, Siasun Robot & Automation, gold, CPO, and other thematic sectors driven by events also performed well, but investors need to be cautious of the risk of volatile adjustments after recent highs. In the short term, there are no new negative factors in the macro environment facing the market, and inactive trading remains a major characteristic at the end of the year. After two big gains this week, the market needs to digest profit-taking, and the stock indexes are expected to continue to rebound in a volatile manner. This article is reproduced from "Tencent Self-selected Stocks". Editor: Chen Wenfang.

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