Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights | Moderately proactive, structure first. Two trading clues before the holiday.

Last Friday, the market surged and then fell, with the three major indexes rising slightly. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets that day was 1.14 trillion yuan, a decrease of 138.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day. In terms of the market, the hot spots were relatively mixed, with the number of stocks rising and falling being basically equal. In terms of sectors, the semiconductor, PCB, phosphorous chemical, and electronic cigarette sectors led the gains, while the Little Red Book concept, retail, cultural media, and duty-free sectors led the declines. By the close of last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.6%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.78%. At today's securities morning meeting, Huatai stated that moderate activity and structural prioritization are important There are two trading clues before the holiday; China Securities Co., Ltd. proposed that supply reduction and demand increase will definitively push up antimony prices in the medium to long term; Galaxy Securities stated that they are optimistic about the consumer sector market during the Spring Festival to the annual performance period. Huatai: Moderate activity, prioritize structure, two trading clues before the holiday Huatai pointed out that last week's A-shares rebounded, with three observations. First, investors may have a certain consensus on the "support level" of this round of volatility range. Second, off-market liquidity is relatively abundant, and the key is to form a money-making effect. Third, there is a strong consensus on innovation and technology, but it is mainly based on theme trading, and its sustainability depends on whether it can form a positive feedback loop with on-market liquidity. Looking ahead, there are two trading clues before the holiday. First, with Trump coming to power, out of the three medium-term trading strategies, autonomous controllable or short-term focus will be key. Second, annual performance forecasts, currently, the industries with a high percentage of pre-announcement of good results are mainly concentrated in the consumption chain, indicating that there may still be opportunities for further gains. Huatai believes that the verification pressure of external variables is not large in the short term, and one can be moderately active and prioritize structure. The prosperity of innovation and technology is still the focus, with an increase in allocation to certain consumer goods and agriculture that have the potential for dividend improvement and improved prosperity. In terms of operations, the bottom trend of the market may remain unchanged in the short term, so maintaining a short-term and volatile mindset is important. China Securities Co., Ltd.: Supply reduction, demand increase, antimony price central trend will definitively rise China Securities Co., Ltd. pointed out that according to Baichuan Yingfu, from the supply side, from January to November 2024, the production of domestic antimony ore / antimony ingots / antimony oxide was 50,400 tons / 65,600 tons / 96,700 tons, respectively, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 9% / 11% / 7%; from the demand side, in 2024, the domestic production of photovoltaic glass was 27.336 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 31%; the apparent demand for bromine was 125,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%; antimony ore has scarcity, and a downward trend in ore grade will lead to a systematic downward shift in production, coupled with the driving force of industries such as photovoltaics and flame retardants to increase antimony consumption, will lead antimony to a supply-shortage situation, and it is expected that the central trend of antimony price will definitively rise in the medium to long term. Galaxy Securities: Optimistic about the consumer sector market during the Spring Festival to the annual performance period Galaxy Securities stated that they are optimistic about the consumer sector market during the Spring Festival to the annual performance period, and companies with high certainty of earnings growth, relatively low valuations, and high dividend payout ratios are worth paying attention to. The policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones in 2025 has already been introduced, and the bank judges that the subsidy amount, benefiting categories, and merchant qualification restrictions in the home furnishing industry are expected to be further relaxed. It is expected that the stimulating effect of national subsidies on the performance of listed companies in 2024 will be concentrated in the first quarter of 2025, and the continuity of the policy in 2025 will continue to benefit downstream demand recovery. This article is reprinted from "Cai Lianshe". GMTEight editor: Liu Xuan.