EB SECURITIES: Coking coal prices hit bottom and rebound, focusing on undervalued coking coal stocks for allocation value.

EB SECURITIES released a research report stating that as of January 17, the price of active coking coal futures contracts was 1175.5 yuan/ton, up 8.49% from the previous week and down 35.29% year-on-year. According to Mysteel data, the total demand for coking coal in 2025 is about 572 million tons, corresponding to a coking coal cost curve position of approximately 1000 yuan/ton. The current coking coal price may have already approached the bottom region. After experiencing a resonance decline in coking coal prices and stock prices, some coking coal companies now have a price-to-book ratio lower than 1.0, making them cost-effective for investment. This week, crude oil and European natural gas futures prices rose, while port coal prices fluctuated narrowly. (1) This week (1.13-1.19), the Qinhuangdao port power coal clearance price (5500 Kcal weekly average) was 764 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.50%) week-on-week; (2) The Shaanxi Yulin power blending coal pit price (5800 Kcal) weekly average was 615 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan/ton (+0.00%) week-on-week; (3) The FOB price of power coal at Newcastle Port in Australia (5500 Kcal weekly average) was 81 US dollars/ton, down 0.96% week-on-week; (4) The settlement price of European natural gas futures (DUTCH TTF) was 47 euros per megawatt-hour, up 4.17% week-on-week; (5) The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was 80.79 US dollars/barrel, up 1.29% week-on-week. Molten iron production and blast furnace capacity utilization rate continued to decline. (1) This week, the operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants (accounting for 50% of the coking raw coal washing capacity in the country) was 68.9%, up 1.1 percentage points week-on-week and down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, still at a low level compared to the same period five years ago; (2) This week, the capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 84.28%, down 1.00 percentage point week-on-week and up 1.30 percentage points year-on-year. The daily average molten iron production was 2.2454 million tons, down 1.2% week-on-week and up 3.2% year-on-year; (3) This week, the average maximum temperature of 28 major cities was 7.74 , which was above normal levels for the same period; (4) This week, the outflow at the Three Gorges Dam was 7467 cubic meters per second, up 7.46% week-on-week and 9.40% year-on-year. Qinhuangdao port coal inventory reaches highest level. (1) As of January 17, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 6.65 million tons, down 2.49% month-on-month and up 23.15% year-on-year, reaching the highest level for the same period; (2) As of January 17, the coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Sea was 25.603 million tons, up 1.38% month-on-month and 10.74% year-on-year; (3) As of January 17, the coke coal inventory at independent coking plants was 9.6114 million tons, up 7.17% month-on-month, and the coke coal inventory at sample steel mills was 8.2749 million tons, up 1.62% month-on-month, both currently at low levels for the same period; (4) As of January 17, the refined coal inventory at 110 sample coal washing plants was 2.3502 million tons, up 3.40% month-on-month and 63.13% year-on-year. Risk Analysis: Economic slowdown; hydropower output exceeds expectations; sharp decline in overseas coal prices; policy implementation is less than expected.