GF SEC: Overseas Data Center Demand Increases, Gas Turbines Welcome Eastern Wind

GF SEC released a research report stating that, according to Thunder Said Energy's statistics, overseas data centers have a gas-fired power generation ratio of 41%, with the United States data centers having an even higher ratio of 52%. The global AI giant arms race has begun, with global cloud giants competing to invest in building data centers. According to statistics, the total capital expenditure plans of international cloud giants such as Amazon and Microsoft that have been clearly announced amount to $285.1 billion, with an expected investment of $198.5 billion in the United States. The future scale of data center construction in the United States is expected to experience rapid growth. According to Cushman & Wakefield, the data center capacity estimated to be constructed in the Americas will reach 25GW. GF SEC's main points are as follows: Gas turbines in downstream fields are mainly used for power generation and are usually the main power source for North American data centers. According to gas turbine world, the global annual sales volume is approximately 40-50GW. Based on Thunder Said Energy's calculation of a unit price of 3000 yuan/kw, the market size is roughly 120-150 billion yuan. According to Grand View Research, the global distribution of downstream gas turbines is mainly used for power generation (67%), oil and gas (25%), and other industrial sectors (8%). Due to the poor infrastructure of overseas, especially North American, power grids and weak grid stability, most overseas data centers use gas turbines as the main power source, with heavy-duty gas turbines being predominant. According to Thunder Said Energy's statistics, the ratio of gas-fired power generation in overseas data centers is 41%, with the United States data centers having an even higher ratio of 52%. The overseas IDC is ushering in a wave of infrastructure construction, driving the historical high prosperity of gas turbines. The gas turbine market has a capacity of billions, and North American data center construction will bring nearly 50% market elasticity. Mitsubishi predicts that by 2026, the annual order volume of global gas turbines will increase by 50% compared to the past three years, partly due to the growth of data centers. According to lesswrong's statistics on the increase in computational power cards of the world's top five cloud giants, the estimated additional installed capacity for AI computational power in 2024-2025 is approximately 8.5GW and 31GW, respectively. This corresponds to a gas turbine demand from 5GW to 23GW, with a net increase of approximately 19GW, resulting in a net market size increase of 56.4 billion yuan, and market elasticity close to 50%. Foreign capital monopolizes the complete machine market, while domestic accessory manufacturers are on the rise, enjoying the growth space opened by the industry chain upgrade. The global leading gas turbine companies include Siemens Energy, General Electric (GE Vernova), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, etc., with orders experiencing high-speed growth. Domestic manufacturers have opportunities to supply gas turbine components (blades, cylinder bodies, etc.) and complete sets (steam turbines, generators) benefitting from the supply shortage of foreign giants, presenting significant opportunities for component suppliers, including Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical, Allied Machinery, Himile Mechanical Science and Technology, Jiangsu Zhenjiang New Energy Equipment, etc. The rapid expansion of overseas AI data centers drives the rapid expansion of the gas turbine market. Seize the prosperous opportunity for domestic component manufacturers to match foreign giants, focusing on future order taking and market share expansion. Recommendations include Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical (603308.SH) (gas turbine blades), Allied Machinery (605060.SH) (supplier of Caterpillar gas turbine castings), Himile Mechanical Science and Technology (002595.SZ) (gas turbine cylinder bodies), with a suggestion to pay attention to Wedge Industrial (000534.SZ) (gas turbine blades), Jiangsu Zhenjiang New Energy Equipment (603507.SH) (supplier of steel structures for Siemens gas turbines), etc. Risk warning: fluctuations in downstream AIDC capital expenditures; supply chain price fluctuations; domestic market share expansion lower than expected.