Bank of America: Expecting Better Performance in Hong Kong's Property Market This Year, But Prices of Second-hand Properties are Expected to Drop 3-5% Year-on-Year.

Cai Chongjia, head of real estate research for Bank of America in Greater China, expected at a press conference that Hong Kong's property market performance will be better this year, but still estimated a 3-5% year-on-year decline in second-hand property prices, mainly because developers still need to lower prices to clear a large amount of inventory. Regarding the mainland China property market, Cai Chongjia stated that after the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in March this year, the central government may introduce more measures to promote old city redevelopment or relax restrictions, which would be beneficial for the mainland China property market. However, Bank of America is more inclined towards state-owned developers with financial resources and execution capabilities that can benefit from market stability. In addition, Ju Lixin, an e-commerce analyst from Bank of America Greater China's internet and media research group, predicts that China's e-commerce market size will increase by 7.5% to 16.8 trillion RMB annually by 2025, slightly slower than the 7.8% growth in 2024. The penetration rate of e-commerce is expected to reach 33%, with the number of online shoppers reaching close to 955 million. Zhao Yanlin, co-head of research in China for Bank of America, expects gold prices to reach $2750 per ounce this year, a 15% increase compared to last year, while oil prices are predicted to drop by 19% to $65 per barrel. Li Mingxun, head of the automotive and industrial industry in Greater China for Bank of America, pointed out that Huawei will launch more new models under its four HIMA brands (with sales close to 800k units in 2025) and will establish more alliances with state-owned enterprises like SAIC and GAC for OEM partnerships. On the other hand, following the success of the SU7, Xiaomi (01810) is expected to launch its second model, the YU7 (SUV), in June/July 2025, with sales estimated to reach 300k units for that year.