Guolian: Maintaining the insurance industry's "stronger than the overall market" rating, the development potential of commercial health insurance is expected to be significant.

Guolian released a research report stating that the insurance industry maintains a "stronger than the overall market" rating. As China's population ages and residents' awareness of health security increases, the demand for commercial health insurance and health management services continues to grow. With the empowerment of commercial insurance companies by medical insurance data, simultaneous settlement of medical insurance funds and commercial insurance, and the implementation of other related support policies, commercial insurance companies can achieve more precise pricing, more controllable claims, and higher claims efficiency. Against this background, the willingness of commercial insurance companies to develop more commercial health insurance products and the willingness of customers to purchase commercial health insurance are expected to increase marginally, with significant potential for the development of commercial health insurance. Guolian's main points are as follows: Commercial health insurance in China is only a supplement to basic medical insurance, with low actual coverage Currently, China is building a medical security system that is based on basic medical insurance, supported by medical assistance, and developed together with supplementary medical insurance and commercial health insurance. Commercial health insurance is only a supplement to basic medical insurance, and both the premium scale and coverage rate are relatively low. In terms of premium scale, from 2000 to 2023, China's commercial health insurance premium scale increased from 6.5 billion yuan to 903.5 billion yuan, with the proportion of total premium scale increasing from 4.1% to 17.6%, indicating that commercial health insurance accounts for a relatively small portion overall. In terms of coverage rate of commercial health insurance, in 2023, the density and depth of commercial health insurance in China were 641 yuan per person and 0.7% respectively, indicating that the actual coverage rate of commercial health insurance remains at a low level. United States: dominated by commercial insurance, broad coverage of commercial health insurance The medical insurance model in the United States is dominated by commercial insurance, with government medical insurance providing protection only to low-income people, children, and the elderly. Therefore, the coverage of commercial health insurance in the United States is relatively broad. From 1999 to 2023, the coverage rate of private medical insurance in the United States changed from 73.0% to 64.5%, with a slight overall decrease but still at a high level. In terms of the payment structure of health expenditure, the contribution of commercial health insurance is relatively high. From 1970 to 2022, the proportion of private health insurance payments in the United States' health expenditure increased from 20.4% to 28.9%, showing a stable increase overall. Germany: private health insurance mainly for high-income groups, low coverage rate Due to the mutual exclusion of private health insurance and statutory health insurance in Germany, the coverage rate of private health insurance is relatively low. From 2000 to 2022, the coverage rate of private health insurance in Germany changed from 9.1% to 10.4%, remaining at a relatively low level overall. In terms of the payment structure of health expenditure, the contribution of commercial health insurance is also low. From 2000 to 2022, the proportion of other payments, such as commercial health insurance, in Germany's health expenditure decreased from 9.6% to 8.9%. In this context, German commercial insurance companies are actively developing supplementary medical insurance, nursing insurance, and other supplementary products to provide differentiated medical services. Japan: the premium scale and proportion of commercial health insurance continue to rise overall In terms of the payment structure of health expenditure in Japan, the contribution of commercial health insurance is relatively low. From 2000 to 2022, the proportion of other payments, such as commercial health insurance, in Japan's health expenditure decreased from 3.6% to 3.0%, mainly due to universal coverage of social medical insurance, limiting the expansion space for commercial health insurance. In this context, Japan has developed specific commercial health insurance products for different groups to increase the proportion of health insurance. From 2008 to 2022, the proportion of annual new premiums for the third category of insurance, such as medical insurance and cancer insurance, in Japan's health expenditure increased from 18.2% to 25.3%. Risk warning: Economic recovery falling short of expectations; continued decline in long-term interest rates; increased volatility in equity markets; policy shift risks.