Mining giants clash! Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR (RIO.US) and BHP Billiton are planning the largest merger in history.
17/01/2025
GMT Eight
According to sources familiar with the matter, the world's second largest mining company, Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR (RIO.US), has recently held preliminary discussions with Glencore about a potential merger. If successful, this would be the largest mining deal in history, potentially creating a mining giant comparable to long-time industry leader BHP Group Ltd Sponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 2 Shs. However, due to the sensitive nature of the information, these sources have requested anonymity, and it is currently unclear whether the negotiations are still ongoing. Representatives from Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR and Glencore have both declined to comment, with Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR's American depositary receipts falling and Glencore rising by 8.7%.
In terms of market value, Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR's market value at the close of trading in London on Thursday was approximately $103 billion, while Glencore's market value was around $55 billion, and BHP Group Ltd Sponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 2 Shs' market value was approximately $126 billion. Despite the attractive prospects of a merger, any deal would face multiple potential obstacles. One source mentioned that Glencore's significant coal business could be a stumbling block and might need to be divested, while its assets in Kazakhstan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo may not be appealing to Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR. Additionally, the two companies have vastly different cultures and histories.
In recent years, there has been a surge in mining industry deals, mainly driven by the desire of major producers to increase copper production, as copper is a key metal in global decarbonization efforts. Both Glencore and Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR possess some of the highest-quality copper mines globally, but like BHP Group Ltd Sponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 2 Shs, they still heavily rely on iron ore for profit growth. However, with China's decades-long construction boom coming to an end, the iron ore market appears to be entering a long period of weakness.
Historical Parallels
Glencore previously proposed a merger with Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR in 2014, making it one of the most active players in the industry. Former Glencore CEO Ivan Glasenberg had initiated talks with Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR, and currently holds nearly 10% of its shares.
Royal Bank of Canada capital markets analyst Ben Davis said, "History always repeats itself, which is interesting, especially as they took very different paths from then onwards."
Over the past decade, Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR has been trying to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, completely exiting coal mining and focusing on copper and lithium operations. In contrast, Glencore has expanded its coal business, including acquiring mines from Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR. Glencore attempted to acquire Teck Resources Limited in 2023, but was unsuccessful, eventually acquiring the coal division of the smaller company. BHP Group Ltd Sponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 2 Shs attempted a $49 billion acquisition of Anglo American, forcing the latter to accelerate business reforms as part of its defensive strategy, but ultimately came away empty-handed.
In the wave of deals sweeping the industry, copper is a key focus. Large mining companies are eager to increase their holdings in this commodity favored by investors, but existing mines are aging, low-grade, and new mines are difficult to find with high construction costs.
By acquiring Glencore, Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR would gain a stake in the Collahuasi mine in Chile, one of the long-coveted deposits for Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR and one it has been eyeing for over a decade. BHP Group Ltd Sponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 2 Shs' stake in the same mine was a major factor in last year's acquisition proposal, and Bloomberg previously reported that during the 2015 commodity price collapse, Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR had made offers to acquire shares of the mine from Glencore and Anglo American.
Bloomberg industry research analyst Grant Spore said that a merger between the two companies would create the world's largest copper mining company.
Merger Faces Numerous Obstacles
However, the obstacles are also clear. Glencore is the world's largest coal transporter and recently decided not to divest this profitable division after receiving investor feedback. Glencore mines nickel and zinc, while Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR does not mine these commodities and has copper and cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo - a challenging place to operate that Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR has long avoided.
Glencore also operates one of the world's largest commodity trading businesses - buying, selling, and transporting large quantities of metals, coal, and oil. Unlike Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR, Glencore's trading arm is highly profitable, and it is uncertain how this would fit into a merged entity.The merger will lead to people questioning the assets of the Canco coal mine, which Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR withdrew from a few years ago. Canco is also the world's largest thermal coal transporter and the largest producer of coking coal, and any merger may trigger antitrust reviews by regulatory agencies.One of the most obvious obstacles is the cultural clash between the two companies. Jacana is known for being diligent and courageous, previously a major commodity trader before entering the mining industry. In 2011, the company went public under the leadership of former boss Glasenberg, who then handed over the company to Gary Nagel, a South African-trained accountant who rose through the ranks in the company and made a name for himself in operating coal mines and trading coal production fuels.
Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR has always been cautious about mergers and acquisitions, with two disastrous acquisitions plaguing Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR more than a decade ago. But in recent years, Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR has cautiously returned to the mergers and acquisitions field. The company acquired a copper mining company for $3.1 billion, acquired a lithium project in Argentina, and last year finalized a $6.7 billion deal to acquire Arcadium Lithium Plc.
Opportunities and challenges coexist
Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR CEO Jacob Stausholm has always been skeptical about large transactions and the possibility of shareholder backlash. Just last month, he also stated that investors may see negative impacts from large transactions to obtain more copper.
Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR has also undergone a thorough cultural transformation, attempting to move on from the destruction of ancient Aboriginal sites in Australia that ultimately led to the CEO and chairman losing their jobs.
Under Stausholm's leadership, Jacana strives to reshape its reputation and address issues such as workplace bullying, sexual harassment, and racial discrimination. Jacana also faces reputation challenges, having spent over $1.5 billion in recent years to resolve a series of investigations into global bribery and corruption.
Both companies have large cornerstone shareholders. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, after Glasenberg, Jacana's second largest shareholder is the Qatar Sovereign Wealth Fund, while Aluminum Corporation Of China holds over 14% of Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR shares.
The negotiations come at a time of strong momentum for Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR. Compared to most competitors, Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR has unparalleled growth plans, with its copper, iron ore, and lithium projects all set to come online in the near future.
Davis stated, "Given the strategic differences between the two companies, Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR's current motivations are not yet clear. For Jacana, this may provide an exit path for its major shareholders."