Japanese central bank officials have been sending signals one after the other, and over 70% of observers expect a interest rate hike next week.

According to the latest survey, nearly three-quarters of Japan's central bank watchers predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next week, reflecting an increase in expectations after BOJ Governor Kuroda Haruhiko stated that the board will discuss the move. The survey shows that out of 53 economists, about 74% predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by the end of the two-day meeting on January 24, higher than the 52% in the previous survey. About 23% expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates in March. Nearly three-quarters of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next week. Earlier, Kuroda reiterated comments made earlier this week by BOJ Deputy Governor Iwata that the central bank will consider raising rates at this meeting, boosting the yen and market expectations for a rate hike. Many economists point out that a rate hike is possible unless Trump returns to the White House four days before the BOJ makes a policy decision, triggering global financial market turmoil. Masamichi Adachi, chief Japan economist at UBS Securities, wrote in his survey response, "The rate hike decision will largely depend on the financial market conditions prior. If there are no shocks, a rate hike is possible." Insiders revealed earlier this week that as long as Trump's return does not trigger too many negative surprises, there is a high likelihood that BOJ officials will raise rates. Nearly half of economists surveyed said it is unlikely or highly unlikely that Trump would suppress global economic prospects or disrupt financial market stability before the BOJ meeting. About a quarter of economists said such a scenario is likely or highly likely, while the remaining economists found it difficult to judge. Since the last meeting in December, data shows that Japan's cost of living has remained high and the economy is gradually recovering. 90% of analysts believe that Japan's economic and inflationary conditions justify the increase in borrowing costs at this meeting. Kuroda has repeatedly stated that wage growth momentum and uncertainty in US economic policy are the two main factors that need to be eliminated before raising rates. This week, BOJ Governor and Deputy Governor expressed more confidence in the wage growth momentum after the BOJ branch managers' meeting earlier this month. Economists also seem to agree with this view, with 78% of economists stating that momentum is sufficient for wage negotiations in spring to raise policy rates next week. Taro Kimura, economist at Bloomberg Economics, said, "The likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this time is very high." He added, "In fact, not raising rates may be more difficult to explain." The economic situation is consistent with the BOJ's forecast, and the inflation outlook for the coming years will also be close to its target. The weakness of the yen is also seen as a key factor. About 69% of economists say that the recent decline in the yen has increased the likelihood of a rate hike at this meeting. Last week, the yen fell to a six-month low against the dollar, close to the key level of 160, and then the expectations of an adjustment in BOJ interest rates fueled a reduction in the decline in the yen-to-dollar exchange rate this week. Eiji Kitada, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Research Institute, said, "The yen approaching 160 will prompt the Bank of Japan to raise rates again." One of the BOJ Deputy Governors, Iwata Nariaki, made an anticipated speech this week in which he hinted at the possibility of a rate hike. About 68% of economists believe that the speech increased the likelihood of a rate hike in January, 15% believe the speech was neutral, and another 15% find it difficult to judge the meaning of the speech. "Deputy Governor Iwata Nariaki's speech indicates that the sustainability of wage increases and the uncertainty of US government policy influence have weakened," said Marcel Thieliant, director of macroeconomic Asia Pacific at Capital Economics. "Therefore, we expect the central bank to raise rates at the January meeting."