Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures show mixed trends, "terrifying data" to be revealed tonight.

1. Pre-market market trends On January 16th (Thursday), pre-market U.S. stocks, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indices were mixed. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.22%, S&P 500 index futures were up 0.24%, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.44%. 2. As of the time of writing, the Germany DAX index was up 0.09%, the UK FTSE 100 index was up 0.67%, the France CAC40 index was up 2.06%, and the European Stoxx 50 index was up 1.37%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was down 1.13% at $77.82 per barrel. Brent crude oil was down 1.18% at $81.06 per barrel. Market News "The horror data" is about to be released. U.S. retail sales data for December will be announced tonight. The market expects U.S. retail sales to increase by 0.6% month-on-month in December, lower than the previous value of 0.7%; it is expected that core retail sales in December will increase by 0.4% month-on-month, higher than the previous value of 0.2%. If the latest retail sales data is stronger than expected, it may weigh on the Fed's rate cut expectations. U.S. core CPI cooling fuels the market, but analysts say inflation risks remain. The relatively mild U.S. CPI for December was announced on Wednesday, with U.S. December CPI growth faster than expected, but core CPI growth lower than expected. This led to a significant rebound in the U.S. stock and bond markets, but traders and investors warned that the market may still be concerned about the pace of inflation. Market participants say that the future path is still uncertain due to the Fed's further interest rate cut prospects and the upcoming actions of Trump on issues such as taxes and tariffs. B. Riley Wealth Market Strategist Art Hogan said, "The issues that drive interest rates higher and weigh on stocks are still there. We just don't know whether the tariffs we will see are surgical or comprehensive, and we don't know what other policies in other areas may lead to inflation or growth." The Fed's three big shots speak out: Confidence in slowing inflation, a soft landing for the economy is near! New York Fed Chairman Williams pointed out that the anti-inflation process is progressing, but there is still a gap to the 2% inflation target, and more time is needed to achieve it continuously. He also mentioned that the recent rise in long-term interest rates reflects both the strength of new data and concerns about fiscal policy, other policies, and global developments. Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin said that the new price data continued the trend of inflation falling to the target level, but policymakers still need to take restrictive measures to ensure a smooth return of inflation to 2%. Chicago Fed Chairman Gillespie welcomed the latest consumer price data, believing that these data support his prospects for easing price pressures and are optimistic about 2025, believing in achieving a soft landing. HSBC Outlook for U.S. Q4 Earnings Season: Bullish on S&P 500 earnings, "seven giants" lead. HSBC said that Wall Street is still optimistic about U.S. stocks continuing to rise this year, but the upward trend will not be as rapid as in the past few years, and investors may encounter many opportunities to buy on dips along the way. Scott Wren, Senior Global Market Strategist at Wells Fargo & Company, stated that he believes the market is heading towards an "opportunity area." The bank expects the S&P 500 index to be between 6500 and 6700 points by the end of the year, meaning an increase of up to 13% from the current level of this index. Wren advised in a report to clients to be prepared to take advantage of any market retracements. "We tend to use such retracements to gradually rebalance our stock positions. In the coming weeks and months, attractive entry points may appear in both the stock and bond markets, and we hope to be prepared." Individual Stock News NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US) both deny rumors of CoWoS orders being cut, Huang Renxun says advanced packaging demand is undergoing a transformation. NVIDIA Corporation CEO Huang Renxun stated that although the types of technology they require are changing, the company's demand for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR's advanced packaging CoWoS remains strong. In addition, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR Chairman Wei Zhejia also responded at the performance meeting today by denying the rumor of order cuts, and reiterated that the company is working closely with customers and continuously working hard to improve capacity.It is indicated that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADRCoWoS is still in high demand overall. Even if customers switch from CoWoS-S to CoWoS-L, it does not mean that orders will be cancelled. The overall production capacity of CoWoS-L still cannot meet the continuous increase in demand from customers.Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) saw a 25% drop in sales in China in the fourth quarter of 2024. Data from research company Canalys shows that in the fourth quarter of 2024, Apple Inc.'s smartphone shipments in China dropped by 25%, as the iPhone maker faces increasing pressure in one of its largest global markets due to Huawei's recovery. According to data released by Canalys on Thursday, Apple Inc.'s shipments in China during this period were 13.1 million units, maintaining a market-leading position with a 17% share by a narrow margin. Canalys analyst Amber Liu stated, "Although Apple Inc. and its iPhone 15 series have maintained a leading position in the fourth quarter, they are facing increasingly greater pressure from domestic flagship devices." In addition to seasonal promotions, Apple Inc. is enhancing its competitive position and user retention rate in the high-end market in China by improving the retail experience, implementing trade-in programs, and expanding interest-free installment payment plans. Bank of America Corp (BAC.US) saw a 125% year-on-year increase in net profit in the fourth quarter. The financial report shows that Bank of America Corp's fourth quarter revenue increased by 11% year-on-year to $25.35 billion; net profit attributable to shareholders was $6.40 billion, a 125% increase from $2.84 billion in the same period last year; earnings per share were $0.82, better than the market's expected $0.77. Net interest income in the fourth quarter was $14.36 billion, surpassing the market's expected $14.12 billion. In addition, investment banking revenue increased by 44% year-on-year, sales and trading revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, and consumer banking revenue increased by 3%. There is a sustained surge in demand for AI chips, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US) has reported performance and outlook exceeding expectations! In the fourth quarter of 2024, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR saw a significant increase of 57% in net profit, exceeding market expectations, providing a boost to investors hoping to see the AI hardware spending trend continue into 2025; gross margin in the fourth quarter was as high as 59%, outperforming the market's expected 58.5% and the previous quarter's 57.8%. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR expects first-quarter sales to be between $25 billion and $25.8 billion, exceeding analysts' average forecast of $24.4 billion; it is also expected to invest between $38 billion and $42 billion this year in technology and capacity upgrades, surpassing analysts' average expectation of $35.2 billion. Management at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR also expects a first-quarter gross margin of 57% to 59%, exceeding the market's estimate of 56.9%. As of the time of writing, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR is up over 5% in pre-market trading on Thursday. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH.US) saw fourth-quarter revenue below expectations. The financial report shows that UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's fourth-quarter revenue increased by 6.8% year-on-year to $100.81 billion, below the market's expected $101.6 billion; net profit was $5.54 billion, compared to $5.46 billion in the same period last year; adjusted earnings per share were $6.81, better than the market's expected $6.73. For 2025, the company expects full-year revenue to be between $450 billion and $455 billion, with the market expecting $447.9 billion; full-year adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between $29.5 and $30, with the market expecting $28.96. As of the time of writing, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is down over 4% in pre-market trading on Thursday. Trump nominates Transportation Secretary: will closely scrutinize Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) FSD and Smart Summon safety issues. Transportation Secretary nominee Sean Daugherty stated that he will support the new US government in continuing to conduct in-depth investigations into Tesla, Inc.'s advanced driver assistance systems. This decision comes as the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is conducting an investigation into 2.4 million Tesla, Inc. vehicles equipped with Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, following reports of four collision accidents, one of which was a fatal accident in 2023. In a Senate hearing, Daugherty firmly stated, "I will ensure that NHTSA's investigation proceeds smoothly." It is worth noting that Tesla, Inc. CEO Musk is not only a leader in the tech industry but also an intimate advisor to President Trump. Trump himself has previously criticized NHTSA's regulatory work. Quantum computing concept stocks continue to rise. Following a significant increase on Wednesday, as of the time of writing, Arqit Quantum (ARQQ.US) is up over 16%, Quantum Computing (QUBT.US) is up over 14%, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS.US) is up over 9%, and Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US) is up over 4%. Important Economic Data and Events Preview 21:30 Beijing time US December Import Prices m/m 21:30 Beijing time US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 11thPhiladelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for January in the United States at 21:30 Beijing time.Beijing time 21:30 U.S. December retail sales rate Performance forecast Friday pre-market: SLB (SLB.US)