TrendForce Consulting: AI infrastructure will dominate MLCC demand by 2025, and the oversupply industry structure remains difficult to change.

According to the latest research from TrendForce, the US non-farm employment and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing in December 2024 exceeded market expectations. The Federal Reserve may significantly reduce the number of rate cuts in 2025 as a result, leading to a high-interest rate environment that could continue to suppress consumer spending and affect business investment and expansion confidence. TrendForce estimates that the total shipment volume of MLCC suppliers in the first quarter of 2025 will be over 11.467 billion pieces, a 3% decrease from the previous quarter. Based on TrendForce's research, major laptop brands such as Dell and HP are concerned that the laptops procured for US education projects in the second half of 2024 may face increased tariffs. As a result, they have requested major ODMs such as Inventec, Quanta, and Wistron to ship early by January 20, 2025, which has driven the demand for MLCC suppliers at the start of the year. Additionally, the increase in GB200 orders held by companies like Foxconn, Quanta, and Wistron, along with the demand for materials ahead of the Chinese New Year at the end of January, has also boosted the shipment growth of MLCC suppliers at the beginning of the year. However, MLCC suppliers are concerned that early shipments of North American orders could weaken the demand for education laptops in the second quarter of 2025. Furthermore, potential trade controls and tariff policies in the US could impact the production and shipment planning of OEMs and ODMs, increase logistics costs for the upstream supply chain, and even lead to variables such as the relocation of production bases.