Guo Mingxi: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) updates the Blackwell architecture product line, the demand for CoWoS-S will significantly decrease.

On January 15th, well-known analyst Guo Mingchi pointed out in a report today that NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) has redefined its product lineup through the latest Blackwell architecture roadmap. The 200 series uses a dual-chip design (manufactured using CoWoS-L), while the 300 series uses dual-chip (CoWoS-L) and single-chip (CoWoS-S) designs. He stated that the new roadmap has led to rumors that NVIDIA Corporation is cutting CoWoS-S capacity, indicating that at least in the next year or so, demand for CoWoS-S by NVIDIA Corporation will significantly decrease. However, from NVIDIA Corporation's perspective, the reduction in CoWoS-S is mainly due to changes in the product roadmap, rather than a decline in demand. This change also aligns well with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR's strategic plan to make its CoWoS-L technology the mainstream solution. NVIDIA Corporation's Blackwell Architecture Blueprint Adjustment 200 Series: Utilizes Dual-die (CoWoS-L manufacturing) design, with system products such as GB200 NVL72, HGXB 200. 300 Series: Utilizes Dual-die (CoWoS-L manufacturing) and Single-die (CoWoS-S) design, with system products like GB300 NVL72 (Dual-die) and HGXB 300 NVL16 (Single-die). NVIDIA has named the Dual-die and Single-die in the 300 series as Ultradual-die and Ultrasingle-die respectively. Guo Mingchi believes that this move is purely for marketing purposes and has no substantive meaning. Based on the new blueprint planning above, it can be reasonably explained why recent market rumors suggest that NVIDIA is cutting CoWoS-S capacity, as demand for CoWoS-S by NVIDIA will indeed significantly decrease in at least the next year. In the 200 series generation, the original B200A (Single-die, CoWoS-S manufacturing) has been removed, so there is no need for CoWoS-S. Starting from 1Q25, NVIDIA will focus on the 200 series and reduce the supply of the H series (CoWoS-S manufacturing), gradually reducing the need for CoWoS-S. It is expected that system products using the B300 series will be mass shipped in 2026. Currently, NVIDIA and CSP clearly prefer GB300NVL72 (CoWoS-L production), so although the B300 series includes systems using Single-die/CoWoS-S, GB300 NVL72 will be shipped first, leading to a higher urgency in demand for CoWoS-L than CoWoS-S. He stated that the above product line changes may affect NVIDIA and its supply chain to a greater or lesser extent, with some suppliers experiencing significant impacts, leading to significant corrections in recent stock prices. However, from NVIDIA's perspective, slowing down/cutting CoWoS-S expansion is mainly in response to changes in the product line rather than caused by a decrease in demand. This change also aligns with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR's strategy to promote CoWoS-L as the mainstream solution.