Open Securities: Online food and beverage growth in December is good, optimistic about the growth potential of the snack sector.

Open Source Securities released a research report stating that in December, the online sales of alcoholic beverages and most popular categories showed good growth. In terms of alcoholic beverages, it is expected that Baijiu will achieve continuous repair of financial performance during the consumption recovery phase of economic warming, and the performance of the beer industry in 2025 is optimistic. In the popular category, dairy products, and snacks benefited from the peak consumption season of the Spring Festival, showing good sales performance. With the expansion of online sales channels, the growth potential of the snack sector is expected to continue. The main points of Open Source Securities are as follows: Alcoholic beverages: Online sales growth, concentration of Baijiu decreased compared to the previous month In December 2024, the online sales of the alcoholic beverage industry in the Alibaba ecosystem reached 1.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 113.2%. In terms of sales volume and price, sales volume increased by 2.8% year-on-year, and the average selling price increased by 107.3% year-on-year. In December, the sales of domestic Baijiu in the sub-industry performed relatively well, with a year-on-year increase of 166.5%. The concentration of top brands in the Baijiu industry decreased by 15.0 percentage points to 53.5% compared to the previous month. The concentration of top brands in the beer industry increased by 0.7 percentage points to 26.1% compared to the previous month. Food: Online sales of snacks and convenience foods grew, industry concentration increased compared to the previous month (1) Snacks: In December 2024, the online sales of the snack industry in the Alibaba ecosystem reached 3.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, with a decrease in sales volume by 13.2% year-on-year, and an increase in average selling price by 20.2% year-on-year. Among the sub-industries, cheese snacks performed well, with a year-on-year increase of 38.6%. The concentration of top brands in the snack industry increased by 2.9 percentage points to 12.6% compared to the previous month. (2) Convenience foods: In December 2024, the online sales of the convenience food industry in the Alibaba ecosystem reached 2.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. In terms of sales volume and price, sales volume decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, and the average selling price increased by 10.8% year-on-year. Looking at sub-industries, rice, flour, and coarse grains performed well in December 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 40.2%. Convenient fast food accounted for a high proportion of online sales, reaching 29.1%. The concentration of top brands in the convenience food industry decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.7% compared to the previous month. Beverage mix: Online sales of dairy products and packaged beverages grew, while instant cereal drinks declined (1) Dairy products: In December 2024, the online sales of the dairy product industry in the Alibaba ecosystem reached 1.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. Looking at sales volume and price, sales volume increased by 11.1% year-on-year, and the average selling price increased by 6.9%, with both contributing to the sales growth. Among the sub-industries, low-temperature yogurt performed well in December 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 55.2%. The concentration of top brands in the dairy product industry increased by 1.1 percentage points to 38.9% compared to the previous month. (2) Instant cereal drinks: In December 2024, the online sales of instant cereal drink industry in the Alibaba ecosystem reached 90 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.9%. Looking at sales volume and price, sales volume decreased by 23.8% year-on-year, and the average selling price decreased by 27.8% year-on-year. The concentration of top brands in the instant cereal drink industry increased by 0.4 percentage points to 38.2% compared to the previous month. (3) Packaged beverages: In December 2024, the online sales of the packaged beverage industry in the Alibaba ecosystem reached 470 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%. In terms of sales volume and price, sales volume increased by 21.2% year-on-year, and the average selling price increased by 9.1%. Carbonated beverages performed well in December, with a year-on-year increase of 62.8%; fruit and vegetable juice accounted for a high proportion of online sales, reaching 17.4%. Investment advice: Good online growth, bullish on snack sector growth potential The growth potential of the snack sector mainly comes from: (1) growth following the expansion of snack volume discount channels; (2) the dividend of new social e-commerce platforms (TikTok, WeChat mini store, etc.); (3) new product expansion in membership store channels; (4) incremental growth in overseas markets. Snack brand companies are more likely to benefit, and Ganyuan Foods (002991.SZ), Yanker Shop Food (002847.SZ), are recommended. In addition, it is suggested to pay more attention to the channel and cost leverage of Guilin Seamild Foods (002956.SZ). Risk warning: Macro-economic performance lower than expected, food safety risks, increased industry competitiveness.