A-share market opening express | A-share trend divergence, ChiNext index falls more than 1%! Siasun Robot & Automation concept continues to be strong.

On January 15, the three major A-share indexes opened collectively lower. As of 9:40, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.68%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.27%. On the market, the Little Red Book concept continued to be strong, with Pinduoduo, internet e-commerce, and TikTok-related concepts leading the gains. The Siasun Robot & Automation sector remained active. On the decline side, real estate, pharmaceuticals, and wind power sectors saw the largest declines. In terms of main funds, funds favored leisure food, internet e-commerce, and battery industries; while funds exited from home appliances, semiconductors, and diversified financial industries. Institutional views Looking ahead, Orient pointed out that 3140 points are likely to be the short-term bottom, with the expected rebound limited. The first target is temporarily set around 3300. After the overall rise of sectors, differentiation is expected to occur. Structural themes remain the main feature of the market, and investors can seize the rare rebound opportunity before the Spring Festival. Galaxy Securities: Even if tariffs are imposed, the impact on the RMB will be weaker than in 2018 Galaxy Securities stated that looking ahead to 2025, the four factors affecting the RMB to USD exchange rate are likely to be positively supported by the nominal economic growth rates of China and the U.S., the neutral impact of the monetary policies, and the active support from central bank exchange rate policies. Before substantial implementation of U.S. tariffs, the RMB may fluctuate in the range of 7.1-7.3. The current environment faced by the RMB is significantly different from the period of tariff escalation in 2018-2019. The impact of tariffs, even if imposed, will be weaker than in 2018, due to the U.S. entering an interest rate reduction cycle and China's earlier opening of fiscal expansion. Shenwan Hongyuan Group: Looking for clues to the spring industry frenzy Reviewing the leading industries in the A-share market's "spring frenzy" from 2010 to 2024, it was found that these industries may be catalyzed by several factors such as policies, industry trends, performance catalysts, and overseas geopolitical factors. Among them, policies are the most important factor, as most of the industries that rose during the spring frenzy were related to policies or policy expectations at the time. Examples of industries that rose during the spring frenzy periods from 2010 onwards, with policy-related cases, were cited. Apart from the average rise of 11 years with policy elements in the period of the spring frenzy, during which the market rebounded after the market circuit breaker in 2016, the weak frenzy in 2014, and the overseas-driven spring frenzy in 2020 and 2022, the research suggested that industries related to mass consumption linked to domestic demand, service-oriented consumption sectors such as social services, retail trade, beauty care, and food, as well as the new technology sectors satisfying technological industry trends and policy initiatives, could potentially lead the market during the "spring frenzy" in 2025. Orient: The expected high point of the rebound is limited, and structural themes remain the main feature of the market Orient pointed out that in the short term, the market produced a rebound stimulated by the frequent warm policy winds, marking the first strong rebound since falling from 3400 points to 3140 points at the end of last year. The 3140 point is likely the short-term bottom, consistent with the previous judgment that the area around 3150 points is a stage bottom. However, the expected high point of the rebound is limited, with the first target set around 3300 for now. After the overall rise in sectors, differentiation is expected, with structural themes remaining the main feature of the market. Investors can seize the rare rebound opportunity before the Spring Festival. Hot sectors 1. The Little Red Book concept continues to be strong The Little Red Book concept remains strong, with several stocks hitting the daily limit including Hangzhou Onechance Tech Corp., Foshan Yowant Technology, Inmyshow Digital Technology, Inly Media Co., Ltd., Aimer Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Ellassay Fashion, and Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture. Multiple stocks including FS Development Investment Holdings, Leo Group Co., Ltd., Shanghai Kaytune Industrial, and Shanghai Yaoji Technology also opened higher by over 7%. Point of view: In terms of news, the international version of the Little Red Book ranked first on the free list of the U.S. App Store. Tianfeng expressed optimism about the continuous expansion of the international version of the Little Red Book and its monetization potential. The content of the Little Red Book is basically not separated domestically and internationally, and overseas users can register directly with overseas phone numbers, resulting in low migration costs. 2. Siasun Robot & Automation concept stocks remain active Siasun Robot & Automation concept stocks continued to be active, with Zhejiang XCC Group hitting the daily limit for 5 days, and Shenzhen King Explorer Science And Technology Corporation and Zhongyeda Electric also hitting the limit. Stocks such as Aishida Co., Ltd., Hanwei Electronics Group Corporation, and China Leadshine Technology rose by over 5%, while Greatoo Intelligent Equipment Inc., Guilin Fuda Co., Ltd., and Zhejiang Fore Intelligent Technolog.Y, Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls and others are following the rise.Review: According to a report by Century Securities, the production plan for the humanoid robot Siasun Robot & Automation by Tesla exceeded expectations, and the industry is expected to enter the fast lane of development. This article is reprinted from "Tencent stock selection", edited by GMTEight: Chen Xiaoyi.