Goldman Sachs releases insights on the financial reports of the retail and restaurant industries in the US stock market: overall revenue exceeds expectations, seeking new opportunities amid differentiation.

Before the ICR (Investor) Conference on January 13, 2025, the retail and food industry updated their financial report guidance, presenting a multifaceted situation. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. stated that overall industry revenue exceeded expectations, but after differentiation in trends, the winners and losers remained clear. Overall, the industry's revenue showed a mixed situation. Most companies exceeded market expectations, with only a few exceptions such as Purple Innovation (PRPL.US), Zumiez (ZUMZ.US), and Macy's, Inc. (M.US). The revenue exceeded expectations were not significant, but most were at the high end of the previous guidance range, surpassing expectations by a few percentage points. The overall trend in the food industry was better than expected, as companies such as Shake Shack (SHAK.US), First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG.US), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RGB.US), Noodles & Company (NDLS.US), and Potbelly Corporation (PBPB.US) all exceeded market expectations, showing strong demand in the food consumption market. However, differentiation within the industry was also significant. Some companies saw revenue growth, but the increase in net profit/earnings per share did not match. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF.US) and Five Below (FIVE.US) were typical examples, as they, like other companies, raised their fourth quarter revenue guidance but did not adjust their net profit. Among the highly anticipated companies, each one had its own strengths. Companies like Lululemon (LULU.US) and Boot Barn (BOOT.US) lived up to expectations with good performance. However, there were still debates among investors during the holidays about the potential growth of some of these companies, so the market was still watching to see if their strong performance could continue. As for ASICS (AS.US), they were considered to have a "good" but "not outstanding" performance, with a 17% growth in the fourth quarter. The growth story may still continue, but there were doubts in the market about their guidance for revenue and net profit only being at the high end. Furthermore, some companies were still struggling. Macy's, Inc. expected fourth-quarter revenue to be at or slightly below previous guidance. Last week, the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. heard that Macy's, Inc.'s trends would be more cautious. Compared to most companies that either reaffirmed or raised their performances, Macy's, Inc.'s changes stood out more prominently. In addition to the overall trend, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. also mentioned the performance of some key companies: Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is optimistic about Five Below. Due to the uncertainty of holiday season trends, Five Below was one of the most talked-about companies at the beginning of the year. Despite some surveys and performance revisions, the stock faced selling at the beginning of the year. The revenue announced this time was higher than last week's concerns. The company announced revenue which was higher than the market consensus, stating that comparable store sales would decrease by 3.2%, better than the market's general expectation of a 4% decrease (revenue being in the upper part of expectations), and it also reaffirmed its earnings per share expectations. The firm expresses a neutral attitude towards Abercrombie & Fitch. The company raised its fourth-quarter revenue guidance to 7-8%, previously 5-7%, with the market consensus at the higher end of 7%. Despite the increased revenue, the company reaffirmed a Q4 operating profit margin guidance of 16%, which may raise some questions about this update, as investors often punish stock prices when a company's performance is not perfect. The firm is bullish on Shake Shack. As expected, the company achieved significantly better-than-expected performance, with a slight increase in revenue, but a larger increase in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). The company's fourth-quarter revenue was $329 million, compared to the market's general expectation of $326 million, with comparable store sales increasing by 4.3%, compared to the market's general expectation of 4.1%, and EBITDA reaching $47 million, far exceeding the market's general expectation of $40 million. The firm is bullish on Urban Outfitters (URBN.US). With solid performance during the holiday season, the company's fourth-quarter revenue grew by 10%, surpassing the market's general expectation of 6%, with comparable store sales increasing by 6%, significantly exceeding the market's general expectation of 2.3%. All three major business segments of the company exceeded expectations. The firm is bullish on Lululemon. Lululemon seems to be the most anticipated company to achieve better-than-expected performance, so the focus will be on whether its strength can continue. The company expects earnings per share for the fourth quarter to be $5.81-5.85, previously $5.56-5.64, with the market consensus at $5.66, revenue of $35.6-35.8 billion, compared to the market consensus of $34.7-35.1 billion, and a 30 basis point increase in profit margin, previously guided at 20-30 basis points. Fourth-quarter revenue is expected to increase by 11-12% year-on-year, previously 6-7%. The firm is bearish on Macy's, Inc. The company reaffirmed earnings per share for the fourth quarter at $1.40-1.65, with net sales expected to be at or slightly below the previous range of $78-80 billion. This contrasted starkly with Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN.US) raising expectations, as Macy's, Inc. did not meet expectations this time. As for ASICS, the company expects revenue for the 2024 fiscal year to be...Guidance revised to the higher end of the previous 16-17% range. Adjusted operating profit margin is at the higher end of the previous 10.5-11.0% guidance range, seemingly attributed to currency headwinds as the reason for only reaching the upper end of the range.Qu ests haciendo hoy?