Sinolink: Policy + Technology + Performance Triple Inflection Point. Commercial Aerospace meets Singularity Moment.

Sinolink released a research report stating that in the commercial spaceflight field, SpaceX has become a global benchmark for commercial spaceflight, with Musk planning a blueprint for space computing power. In China, the "15th Five-Year Plan" explicitly suggests that aerospace should be a key development direction for strategic emerging industry clusters. In the near future, there will be intensive launches of reusable rockets, and the construction of satellite networks and constellations will be accelerated. Whether viewed from overseas mapping or domestic catalysis, the trend of the commercial spaceflight industry has reached a critical moment. Sinolink's main points are as follows: Overseas mapping: SpaceX & Starlink - mapping the core investment logic of A-share commercial spaceflight 1. SpaceX: Not a traditional aerospace manufacturer, but a monopoly on space logistics and infrastructure SpaceX has built a self-reinforcing commercial closed loop: using Falcon 9's unparalleled launch cost advantage to build the world's largest space communication network - Starlink, and using the substantial cash flow generated from these two to support the largest engineering project in human history - Starship. SpaceX's core competitiveness comes from the deep integration of three dimensions: Cost barrier: With Falcon 9's full first-stage reuse, its internal launch marginal cost has dropped to nearly $15 million, with a gross profit margin of around 68% when the number of reused missions reaches 5 times. This cost structure allows SpaceX to have pricing power when facing traditional aerospace giants like Boeing and Lockheed Martin. This barrier is not a patent barrier, but a scale effect barrier in manufacturing and operations. Even if competitors create reusable rockets, they cannot replicate the data and supply chain efficiency accumulated by SpaceX from over 100 launches per year. Manufacturing barrier: SpaceX has achieved self-reliance in over 80% of components, from engines, arrow body structure, laser communication modules to aerospace suits and flight software. The vertical integration strategy has brought about high iteration speed and cost control capability. This leading position in the chain allows SpaceX to update spacecraft at the rate of consumer electronics, ushering in the era of rocket manufacturing on a production line from a manual workshop. Customer barrier: SpaceX's relationship with the U.S. government has evolved beyond a simple customer-contractor relationship to a deep strategic symbiosis. Through long-term and high-value contracts, NASA and DoD have provided substantial subsidies for SpaceX's core research and development (especially Starship). In return, the U.S. government gains independent, reliable, cost-effective, and technologically advanced space access capabilities, breaking away from the inefficiency of traditional military-industrial complex "cost plus" contracts. 2. Starlink: SpaceX's cash cow and core growth engine, a global satellite SaaS platform protected by the parent company's moat Starlink has created a strong flywheel effect. More users bring more revenue, more revenue supports more satellite launches, more satellites bring better coverage and user experience, attracting more users. In the face of this flywheel, the window for competitors to catch up is rapidly closing. Starlink is evolving into an indispensable pole in the global communication infrastructure. Launching end: Leveraging the deconstruction of launch dominance. When Amazon's Project Kuiper or OneWeb needs to pay expensive market prices ($70 million) to launch satellites, Starlink only needs to pay internal marginal costs ($15 million) to its parent company SpaceX. This fundamental cost structure difference allows Starlink to rapidly and densely network in the capital-intensive low-orbit satellite race at a speed and density that competitors cannot reach. This is not just a technological victory, but also an efficiency victory in cost. Business model evolution: Three-stage rocket-like TAM expansion. Starlink has evolved from a single B2C product to a multi-tier SaaS platform covering B2C, B2B, and B2B2C. Stage one (B2C personal version): Broadband replacement in rural and remote areas. This is Starlink's current base, but limited by the population density of specific geographic areas. Stage two (B2B enterprise version): Monopoly in high-value mobile scenarios. High ARPU markets such as aviation, maritime, and land mobility are crucial for increasing Starlink's profit margin. Starlink's low latency and global coverage have virtually no alternatives, rapidly taking market share from traditional GEO satellite operators (such as Viasat). Stage three (B2B2C): Ultimate network for direct mobile phones. This is crucial for further increasing Starlink's valuation. Through cooperation with operators, Starlink will not only be an internet service provider but also a space-based station and backup network for global telecommunications operators. This will increase its user base from millions to billions, breaking the coverage boundaries of physical base stations. Technical end: Starlink's technological barriers come from its ultimate industrial manufacturing capabilities and vertical integration efficiency. Starlink has abandoned the traditional satellite laboratory customization model, adopting a unique flat design. This not only achieves automated mass production similar to an automotive assembly line, lowering the cost of a single satellite to orders of magnitude below the industry average, but also greatly optimizes the use of space within the fairing, achieving the ultimate cost reduction at the launch end. Starlink's inter-satellite laser links are the killer feature that sets it apart from competitors. Through standard optical communication terminals, Starlink has built an optical mesh network at the speed of light in space. This eliminates the geographical dependency on ground link stations and achieves truly global seamless coverage and millisecond-level low latency, creating a user experience barrier that military and high-end commercial customers cannot refuse. 3. Mapping the investment logic for A-share commercial spaceflight Based on SpaceX's verified monopoly position in launching and Starlink's giant constellation monetization path, the core investment logic for A-share commercial spaceflight can be summarized as: embrace the explosive period of the Thousand Sails constellation infrastructure construction, and focus on high-barrier components. From a timing perspective, China is currently in the pre-networking stage similar to SpaceX in 2018-2020. As the G60 Thousand Sails and GW National Grid enter an intensive launch period, satellite manufacturing is transitioning from "lab customization" to "automotive assembly line-style production". Before liquid reusable rocket technology is fully mature, the most certain Alpha returns in the industry chain will come from high-value, high-barrier-of-entry satellite core units and payloads. Companies that can provide universal power, communication, and attitude control systems will be the first to realize performance. Domestic catalyst: Intensive launches of reusable rockets bring commercial spaceflight to a critical point 1. Domestic catalyst: Currently in a critical window of demand surge and insufficient capacity Demand side: China's satellite networks and constellation of Thousand Sails are accelerating network construction, with an annual launch demand exceeding 1,000 satellites, while existing state-owned team capacity can only meet demands at the level of hundreds. The huge gap is a rigid market for private rocket companies. 2. Technological end: Recyclable rockets are key to reducing the cost of commercial spaceflight, with late 2025 to 2026 as a critical period for liquid reusable rocket technology. Zhuque 3 has successfully entered orbit, and recyclable rockets such as Long March 12A and Tianlong 3 are set to debut, marking China's entry into an intensive launch period of recyclable rockets, signaling that China is one step away from breaking through the core cost reduction technology. The Hainan Wenchang Super Factory is about to start production, producing 1,000 stars annually, achieving mass cost reduction at the satellite end; GW and G60 are planning tens of thousands of satellites, considering the limited orbital resources for low-orbit satellites, accelerating satellite production. Musk plans for space computing, and China plans to construct and operate a large-scale data center system with a power capacity exceeding one gigawatt in the 700-800-kilometer dawn-dusk orbit, taking computing power into space. 3. Policy side: The "15th Five-Year Plan" explicitly suggests that aerospace should be a key development direction for strategic emerging industry clusters, with the Aerospace Bureau issuing the "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025-2027)" and setting up a commercial space department; at the industrial level, China's commercial spaceflight has formed a complete industry chain covering "satellites, rockets, launch sites, testing, and applications". The satellite end of the fifteenth five-year plan is expected to enter the commercialization stage while the rocket end is expected to achieve normal recyclability; the application end is accelerating C-end penetration, with scenarios such as direct mobile connection, direct car connectionand low-altitude economy expected to be widely applied. 2. Investment strategy: Construction period Upstream manufacturing with the highest certainty First stage (currently): Focus on core components of rockets/satellites. 3D printing (core cost reduction technology), special materials, T/R components, etc., have the greatest performance elasticity. Second stage (mid-term): Focus on ground infrastructure, user terminals, and operations side. Risk warning: Key personnel risks; Starship research and development being hindered; geopolitical risks; rising cost risks.