Federation Consulting: It is expected that by 2030, electric new car models with Level 3 autonomous driving capabilities will account for 10% of the market.

The latest report from TrendForce shows that by 2024, nearly 90% of the new electric passenger vehicles on the market will be equipped with advanced driver assistance systems that meet the classification of Level 2 (SAE Level 2) by organizations like the Society of Automotive Engineers in the United States. However, the number of vehicles on the market with the more advanced Level 3 classification is currently quite low. Due to technological barriers and regulatory requirements, vehicles that meet the Level 3 classification are currently priced higher. Once these challenges are overcome, with more supply chain investment and achieving economies of scale in production, costs may decrease. As technology, regulations, and costs gradually optimize, the number of new models with Level 3 capabilities is expected to significantly increase, with the proportion of Level 3 models among new electric passenger vehicles reaching 10% by 2030. From a technological perspective, in addition to self-driving chips, the training of self-driving models is also crucial for this automotive technology. NVIDIA announced at the recently concluded CES 2025 the development of three essential components for self-driving products, including an AI development platform, a simulation and synthetic data platform, and self-driving chips for vehicles. The accompanying Cosmos platform contains the World Foundation Model (WFM), which can generate a large number of realistic synthetic scenes for simulation training based on physical principles. TrendForce points out that training self-driving models using a large number of realistic simulation scenarios and rare edge cases can help developers accelerate the commercialization of technology. Currently, the European Union and Japan have regulations related to Level 3, and China is also accelerating the implementation of self-driving technology in general passenger vehicles. For example, Beijing is expected to implement the "Beijing Autopilot Regulations" on April 1, 2025, to regulate self-driving vehicles equipped with Level 3 and higher systems, paving the way for personal passenger vehicle automation. The testing and deployment of self-driving commercial vehicles such as Level 4 autonomous taxis and self-driving buses are also increasing, with companies like Baidu and Pony.ai benefiting from the relaxation of self-driving regulations and conducting commercial operations in multiple cities in China. In the United States, Tesla announced its Cybercab plan in October 2024, and with the upcoming inauguration of a new president, the new government is expected to update autonomous driving regulations and accelerate the deployment of related technologies.