GF Securities: The off-season in the construction materials industry is weak but stable, focus on bottoming out opportunities in the sector.
14/01/2025
GMT Eight
GF SEC released a research report stating that the loose monetary environment and positive fiscal expectations provide strong support, with more incremental policies expected to follow, which is favorable for the stabilization of the fundamental outlook, continuing to have a positive view on investment opportunities in the building materials sector. The current prosperity of the building materials industry remains on the left side, but considering that various sectors are gradually bottoming out, and industry-leading companies have undergone pressure tests with strong operational resilience. It is recommended to focus on the consumer building materials sector with strong growth potential and valuation flexibility, cement and glass industry leaders who are at the bottom of profitability, and the bottom allocation opportunities of fibreglass leaders, and some structural prosperity competition tracks.
GF SEC's main points are as follows:
Consumer Building Materials: Continued policy strength, retail building materials prosperity recovering first, leading companies demonstrating strong operational resilience
Consumer building materials have good long-term demand stability, continuous improvement of industry concentration, and good competitive landscape, with large growth space for high-quality segmented industry leaders in the long term. Downstream real estate is still seeking a bottom, with new construction starting areas expected to have fallen to mid-term low levels, awaiting stabilization and improvement in sales; core leading companies demonstrate strong operational resilience.
Optimistic about SKSHU Paint(603737.SH), Dehua TB New Decoration Material(002043.SZ), Beijing New Building Materials Public(000786.SZ), Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials(002372.SZ), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology(002271.SZ), CHINA LESSO(02128), Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings(003012.SZ).
Focus on Guangdong KinLong Hardware Products(002791.SZ), Arrow Home Group(001322.SZ), Monalisa Group(002918.SZ), Keshun Waterproof Technologies(300737.SZ), Jiangxi GETO New Materials Corporation(300986.SZ), Wangli Security&Surveillance Product(605268.SH).
Cement: National cement market prices fell by 0.6% compared to last week
According to Digital Cement Network, as of January 10th, the national average price of cement was 411 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, up 37.5 yuan/ton year-on-year; the national cement shipment rate was 38.27%, down 3.27% compared to the previous period and down 8.27% year-on-year. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream construction rate further decreases, coupled with cement companies clearing inventory before the holiday, it is expected that cement prices will continue to decline. Currently, the industry valuation is at historically low levels, optimistic about Anhui Conch Cement(600585.SH,00914), Huaxin Cement(600801.SH,06655); focus on CR BLDG MAT TEC(01313), Gansu Shangfeng Cement(000672.SZ), Guangdong Tapai Group(002233.SZ).
Glass: Prices temporarily stable, inventory fluctuations not significant
According to Sublime China Information, as of January 10th, the average price of float glass was 1377 yuan/ton, down 0.3% compared to the previous period, down 32.5% year-on-year, with an inventory turnover of approximately 21.2 days, up 0.01 days. The price of 2.0mm coated glass panels was 12 yuan/square meter, unchanged from the previous period, with an inventory turnover of approximately 33.69 days, up 0.25 days. Currently, the valuation of glass industry leaders is relatively low, optimistic about Zhuzhou Kibing Group(601636.SH), Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass(600529.SH), Flat Glass Group(601865.SH), FLAT GLASS(06865), XINYI GLASS(00868), XINYI SOLAR(00968); focus on Shandong Jinjing Science & Technology Stock(600586.SH), Linuo Tech Glass(301188.SZ).
Fibreglass/Carbon-based Composites: Coarse yarn market prices are stable, fine yarns are weakly stable
According to Sublime China Information, as of January 9th, the average price of domestic 2400tex winding direct yarn was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period, up 18.5% year-on-year; the mainstream price of G75 electronic yarn was 8300-8500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period, the electronic yarn market prices remained stable overall, with no clear signs of improvement in downstream delivery enthusiasm; fibreglass is shaking at the bottom, and the prosperity of carbon-based composite materials continues to stabilize, with leading companies showing a clear lead, optimistic about China Jushi Co., Ltd(600176.SH), Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials(300196.SZ), Sinoma Science & Technology(002080.SZ); focus on Kbc Corporation, Ltd.(688598.SH).
Risk Warning: Risks of continued macroeconomic downturn, significant fluctuations in monetary, real estate, and other policies, risks of industry new capacity exceeding expectations, risks of rapid increases in raw material costs, etc.