Cui Dongshu: In December, the national automobile market showed a divergent trend between passenger and commercial vehicles, with strong consumption of new energy vehicles.

In December, the Secretary-General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Cui Dongshu, stated that the trend of the national automobile market in December was divided, showing a trend of strong passenger vehicles and weak commercial vehicles. Passenger car products continued to show strong growth under the drive of policy subsidies, while the commercial vehicle market showed characteristics of a strong reduction in production and sales due to destocking efforts. Last year, there was a high inventory of commercial vehicles in the channel, and this year, the end-of-year trend of commercial vehicles is divided, with strong growth in heavy trucks and large and medium-sized buses. In terms of new energy, the consumption of new energy vehicles in the car market in December was strong, and the market saw structural growth due to the scrap renewal policy, with trends varying among different companies. 1. The trend of the automobile market in 2024 is divided between passenger and commercial vehicles In recent years, the differentiation between passenger and commercial vehicles has been obvious. This year, the market was affected by policies and the Spring Festival, with passenger car growth relatively good from January to December, while the commercial vehicle market only recovered after the Spring Festival, with a relatively weak trend for January to December. The reduction in production of commercial vehicles in December resulted in a good effect on reducing sales and destocking. 2. A good start for the automobile market in 2024 From January to December 2024, the cumulative total sales of automobiles reached 31.44 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 4%. In December 2024, the total sales of automobiles reached 3.49 million units, an increase of 11% year-on-year and a 5.8% increase from the previous month. The automobile market in 2023 started low and ended high, with an obvious overspend at the end of the year. Sales in February this year significantly declined month-on-month, with a significant rebound in December, as price wars led to a gradual recovery in the market. The total cumulative sales of automobiles in 2019 were 25.7687 million units, an 8.1% decrease; in 2020, the total cumulative sales of automobiles were 25.31 million units, a 1.9% decrease; in 2021, the total cumulative sales of automobiles were 26.27 million units, with a growth rate of 3.8%, finally achieving positive growth, higher than the performance in 2019; in 2022, the total cumulative sales of automobiles were 26.7557 million units, with a growth rate of 1.9%; in 2023, the total cumulative sales of automobiles were 30.09 million units, with a growth rate of 12.4%. 3. Strong differentiation in the performance of major automotive groups Compared to the chart in 2021, some automakers had a strong performance in 2022, with significant differentiation in industry growth rates. The outbreak of the epidemic at the beginning of 2022 caused significant pressure on traditional automakers, especially with the impact of new energy and the epidemic, leading to a divergence in the performance of state-owned large groups, with Guangzhou Automotive Group and Chery performing well. Both the commercial and passenger vehicle sectors of Chery performed well. Various companies in the North, such as FAW and Great Wall Motors, faced pressure. The trend of the car market became more differentiated at the beginning of 2023 due to the promotion of new energy vehicles. The top three state-owned enterprises overall displayed divergence, with some state-owned enterprises falling behind. New energy companies like BYD Company Limited performed well; Chery and Tesla, Inc. had relatively strong performances this year. Second-tier automotive companies showed differentiation due to the continuous losses from the transition of old and new energy and the pressure of new energy vehicles, with significant differentiation among small and medium-sized enterprises in the independent brand sector. In 2024, the lineup and structure of automotive groups have undergone comprehensive changes, with Chery, Geely, and Dongfeng performing well due to the good pace of passenger car sales and overseas contributions, while SAIC continues to experience a sharp decline. The car market was relatively divided in December, with strong consumption of new energy vehicles, leading to structural growth in the market due to the scrap renewal policy, with trends varying among different companies. Some major manufacturers experienced a significant decline compared to the previous month in December. 4. Narrow passenger vehicle production and sales trends In 2023, the total cumulative sales of narrow passenger vehicles from manufacturers was 25.5323 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 10.4% for the whole year. In recent years, the innovation in new energy vehicle technology and the continuous growth in competitive new products have weakened the introduction of new fuel vehicles. This year, a price war in the car market started early in the year, with some popular new energy models seeing price cuts of up to 20%. The price cuts continued from the Spring Festival in February to the end of April, with the number of models participating in price cuts similar to the number in the previous year, leading to a temporary extreme cautiousness in consumers' price expectations in the spring, coupled with weak consumer consumption expectations, temporarily delaying the start of the spring car market. Against the backdrop of different taxes and rights for fuel and electric cars, the trend of high growth in new energy vehicles and negative growth in fuel vehicles is becoming increasingly evident. With the promulgation of detailed rules for the implementation of the policy on replacing old vehicles with new ones and the continued coordination of local new energy subsidies, the consumption purchasing power of society has been released from May to December, driving a strong market performance for new energy vehicles in the second half of the year, better than the predictions of the passenger vehicle manufacturer forecasting teams. From January to December 2024, the total cumulative sales of narrow passenger vehicles reached 27.19 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 7%; in December 2024, the total narrow passenger vehicle sales reached 3.08 million units, an increase of 13.3% year-on-year and a 4.5% increase from the previous month. In December, major car companies overall performed strongly, with independent brands performing exceptionally well, while joint venture car companies showed slow improvement. In December, BYD Company Limited led the way, Chery remained in second place, and GEELY AUTO maintained third place. The joint venture FAW Toyota also showed strong performance. The main passenger vehicle manufacturers' camps quickly differentiate, with manufacturers mainly focused on new energy vehicles showing stronger performance and independent brands showing significant differentiation. In 2023, the total cumulative retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles from manufacturers were 21.7 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 6%; from January to December 2024, the total sales of narrow passenger vehicles reached 22.9 million units, a 6% increase year-on-year, with 2.64 million units sold in December, a 12% increase year-on-year. 5. Production and sales trends of new energy passenger vehicle companies In 2022, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 6.5 million units, a 96% year-on-year increase. In 2023, the new energy passenger car market reached 8.87 million, showing stable growth. From January to December 2024, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 12.23 million units, showing a good growth of 38%. Scrap renewal subsidies, manufacturer price reductions, new models, etc., contributed to the good growth. 6. Production and sales trends of traditional power passenger vehicle companies In 2023, the sales of traditional fuel narrow passenger vehicles reached 16.66 million units, remaining basically flat compared to the same period in 2022; from January to December 2024, the sales of traditional narrow passenger vehicles reached 14.96 million units, a 10% year-on-year decrease compared to the same period last year, with a 3% decrease in December compared to the same period last year. The decline in the third quarter was the largest of the year, with a significant improvement in the fourth quarter. The continued decline of conventional passenger vehicles in the previous period brought significant market pressure. Recently, the trend of traditional cars has relatively warmed up, but the continuous impact of drastic price reductions in new energy vehicles will continue to be visible. Hopeful that traditional cars can stabilize and resume growth. The situation of conventional power passenger vehicles mainly dominated by joint venture companies is gradually changing.The market for joint ventures dominated by Chery, Geely, and other strong competitors is still strong. FAW-Volkswagen leads the joint venture market, but the advantage of independent brands in fuel-efficient vehicles is not significant compared to the joint ventures, and the technical capabilities of joint venture companies in fuel-efficient vehicles remain very strong.7. Trends in production and sales of commercial vehicle enterprises The overall trend of the commercial vehicle market is relatively low, with a 30% year-on-year decline in 2022, showing an unprecedentedly low growth rate. In 2023, the total manufacturer sales of general commercial vehicles reached 4.2977 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 18.6% for the whole year. From January to December 2024, the cumulative sales of general commercial vehicles reached 4.148 million units, a decrease of 3%. In December 2024, the sales of general commercial vehicles reached 405,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% and a month-on-month increase of 16.6%. The beginning of 2024 was mainly strong due to the base factor in January, followed by stable performance from March to June under a high base. Commercial vehicle growth was weaker from July to September, gradually strengthening in the fourth quarter. The main manufacturers in the commercial vehicle market are Beiqi Foton, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Dongfeng Motor, Sinotruk Jinan Truck, Chongqing Changan Automobile, among others. Chang'an, FAW, and Wuling Motors performed relatively well, while Jiangling remained stable. In the heavy-duty truck segment, Dongfeng Motor and Sinotruk Jinan Truck performed well, while some second-tier companies still face pressure in terms of trends. 8. Trends in production and sales of micro vehicle enterprises In 2023, the total manufacturer sales of micro vehicles reached 882,400 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 6.3% for the whole year. From January to December 2024, the cumulative sales of micro vehicles totaled 707,000 units, a decrease of 19.8%. In December 2024, the total sales of micro vehicles reached 73,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3% and a month-on-month increase of 27.3%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative sales of micro vans reached 274,000 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 3.5%. In December 2024, the sales of micro vans reached 36,000 units, an increase of 46.9% year-on-year and 12% month-on-month. From January to December 2024, the cumulative sales of micro trucks reached 433,000 units, a decrease of 29.8%. In December 2024, the sales of micro trucks reached 36,000 units, a decrease of 42.6% year-on-year and an increase of 47.7% month-on-month. SAIC-GM-Wuling showed relatively strong performance in 2023, especially from August to December. In early 2024, there were severe adjustments, followed by a strong performance from March to May. At the end of the year, most leading manufacturers saw a rebound in sales, with a strong end-of-year push. 9. Trends in production and sales of light trucks In 2023, the total manufacturer sales of trucks reached 2.9273 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 22.8%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative sales of light trucks reached 1.899 million units, a decrease of 1%. In December 2024, the sales of light trucks reached 176,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% and a month-on-month increase of 5.1%. The high growth in truck sales in the previous period was mainly due to the replacement of National III diesel vehicles, with strong measures taken by various regions to phase out National III vehicles, leading to a significant increase in replacement purchases. With a new round of trade-ins, the growth potential of the truck market still exists. In 2024, there was a clear differentiation in the trends of major light truck manufacturers. Companies like Dongfeng Motor saw a significant increase in sales compared to December of the previous year. Chongqing Changan Automobile and Xinyuan Auto have transitioned from strong micro truck companies to strong players in the light truck segment. 10. Trends in production and sales of medium and heavy-duty trucks In 2019, the total sales of medium and heavy-duty trucks reached 1.3136 million units, a decrease of 0.9%. In 2020, the total sales of medium and heavy-duty trucks reached 1.778 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 35%. In 2021, the total sales of medium and heavy-duty trucks reached 1.572 million units, a decrease of 12%. In 2022, the sales of medium and heavy-duty trucks reached 767,500 units, a decrease of 51%. In 2023, the total manufacturer sales of medium and heavy-duty trucks reached 1.0181 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 32.7%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative sales of medium and heavy-duty trucks reached 1.029 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 1.1%. In December 2024, the sales of medium and heavy-duty trucks reached 96,000 units, an increase of 63% year-on-year and 24.8% month-on-month. The previous high growth in heavy-duty trucks was mainly driven by e-commerce logistics, which led to an increase in road transport demand, along with rapid growth in financial loans. Under the influence of the epidemic on consumer spending, the trend towards e-commerce has further strengthened the logistics and transportation sectors. Additionally, factors such as the scrapping of National III vehicles and investment have contributed to the growth. Due to the excessive penetration of automotive finance, problems have gradually emerged, resulting in significant consumption pressures in the automotive market. In 2024, the trends of major players were divergent. Heavy-duty truck exports to Russia were strong for companies like FAW and Shaanxi Automotive. FAW and Dongfeng heavy-duty trucks were in a period of adjustment after the Spring Festival. FAW and Dongfeng still need to strengthen product competitiveness and market expansion. The gap between second-tier heavy-duty truck companies and major players remains significant. 11. Trends in sales of light commercial vehicles In 2023, the total manufacturer sales of light commercial vehicles reached 488,100 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 19.6%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative sales of light commercial vehicles reached 392,000 units, a decrease of 1.1%. In December 2024, the sales of light commercial vehicles reached 40,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% and a month-on-month increase of 11.7%. Jiangling led the light commercial vehicle market in December, with other companies also showing relatively good performance. The light commercial vehicle market has been changing recently, with second-tier manufacturers emerging. Chang'an has shown strong performance in the past two years, followed by SAIC GM Wuling and Jiangling. SAIC GM Wuling has performed well in exports. 12. Trends in sales of large and medium-sized buses In 2023, the total manufacturer sales of large and medium-sized buses reached 91,700 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 3.9%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative sales of large and medium-sized buses reached 119,000 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 30.1%. In December 2024, the sales of large and medium-sized buses reached 21,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 65.2% and a month-on-month increase of 101.2%. In the past two years, large and medium-sized buses showed strong performance, with high year-on-year growth driven by subsidies for new energy buses and government initiatives. With the decline of subsidies in the past two years, there has been a significant decline in the sales of large and medium-sized buses. However, with local governments facing financial difficulties, despite some growth in public transport vehicle models in 2024, the overall performance remains mediocre. In 2024, the large bus market still relies mainly on the chaos of new energy buses, and with the withdrawal of policies, the bus market is showing signs of stress.The mid-tier market continues to fluctuate at low levels.In English, it would be " "