The epidemic bonus has completely disappeared! Moderna(MRNA.US) lowers sales forecast by $1 billion in 2025.

On Monday, Moderna (MRNA.US) lowered its sales forecast for 2025 by about $1 billion, citing some adverse factors that may occur later this year. The biotech company continues to cut costs and expand its investment portfolio. Moderna's stock price closed down nearly 17% on Monday. Other vaccine stocks also saw declines, with Novavax and BioNTech both dropping by over 7%. Moderna currently expects revenue for 2025 to be between $15 billion and $25 billion, with most of it expected to be realized in the second half of this year. According to a statement, most of these sales will come from Moderna's Covid vaccine and newly launched respiratory syncytial virus vaccine. This forecast is lower than the previously announced range of $25 billion to $35 billion in September. At that time, the company stated that it expected to achieve operating cash flow breakeven in 2028 (originally planned for 2026) with revenue of $60 billion. "As we enter 2025, we are planning for some uncertainties," said Moderna Chief Financial Officer Jamie Mock. "During this time, we plan to make headwinds of them. They may be tailwinds, but right now we view them as headwinds." Mock pointed out four factors that may impact sales, including increased competition in the Covid vaccine market. He mentioned that Moderna's market share in the US retail market declined from 48% in 2023 to 40% by the end of 2024, and the company is preparing for further decrease this year. He also noted that under a new agreement, Sanofi will globally commercialize Novavax's Covid vaccine, which could make the vaccine more competitive. Mock stated that the second factor is the decline in vaccination rates, with an overall 7% decrease in vaccination rates in the US retail market in fall 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. The last two factors are the timing of production contracts signed with a few countries and the uncertainty around recommendations on how to re-vaccinate with the RSV vaccine by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. However, Mock mentioned that the company expects cash cost expenditures for 2025 to decrease by $1 billion and plans to further cut costs by $500 million in 2026. "We are taking prudent costs to preserve cash," Mock said. "We are excited about investing and diversifying our investment portfolio." As Moderna announces this news, it is charting the way forward after a rapid decline in demand for its Covid vaccine, which was its only commercial product before the RSV vaccine entered the market last year. Additionally, Moderna will be speaking at the annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, one of the largest gatherings of healthcare executives globally and a hotbed for industry deal-making. Revenue from Moderna's two vaccines reached expectations in 2024, around $30 billion to $31 billion. In November last year, the company stated that its updated Covid vaccine benefited from receiving approval three weeks earlier in the US than the previous vaccine in 2023. Despite this, these revenues are still significantly down compared to Moderna's $6.7 billion in sales in 2023 and $18 billion in sales in 2022 as fewer people are getting vaccinated with new vaccines. Moderna plans to have ten new products approved in the next three years, including combo vaccines for Covid and flu and the "next-generation" Covid vaccine to strengthen its product portfolio. The company announced on Monday that three companies alone are expected to get approvals in 2025. The company is betting on its pipeline built around its messenger RNA platform, the technology used in its Covid and RSV vaccines.