CICC: Stable landscape in the short video industry, triple convergence growth focusing on AI and new directions for going abroad

CICC releases research report, stating that the domestic short video industry has rapidly developed since 2023, not only as an important source of advertising revenue for short video platforms, but also impacting the online entertainment competitive landscape and reflecting the changing user preferences. At the current point in time, with the gradual implementation of regulatory policies in the short video industry, the growth logic of production, distribution, and consumption resonance is expected to continue, making it difficult for the short video industry landscape to be disrupted by long video platforms. Attention should be paid to AI and new directions for international expansion. Key points from CICC are as follows: Development stage: Market size may exceed 50 billion yuan by 2024, with production, distribution, and consumption resonance According to iMedia Research, the market size of the micro short video industry may reach 50.44 billion yuan by 2024, a year-on-year increase of 34.9%. The rise of the short video industry reflects the demand of users in lower-tier cities for strong plot and fast-paced content. Looking ahead, the growth logic based on the resonance of the three aspects is expected to continue, but the specific driving factors may face stage changes, and the overall participants in the short video industry may become more diverse. Content production side: Micro short dramas inherit the overflow capacity of long dramas, and the future may shift from quantity to quality. Content distribution side: The investment and flow model has matured relatively, with ROI under pressure driving continuous evolution of business models. Content consumption side: Targeting the entertainment needs of lower-tier markets, genres are expanding from male-oriented to female-oriented. Online competition: Long video platforms defend against short dramas to supplement content According to QuestMobile, the overlap of users between short video platform Hong Guo and long video platforms accounts for 10%-18% (November 2024). Long video platforms may (1) increase investment in advantageous categories of long dramas. (2) also lay out short dramas. The deployment of short dramas by long video platforms is more of a defensive measure, supplementing content to meet the demand for short films from existing users, increase stickiness, and contribute to a certain increase in advertising revenue; considering the difficulty of acquiring external customers and competing with the traffic base of short video platforms, it is difficult to disrupt the existing landscape of the short video industry. Trend outlook: Regulation policies guide rational development, focus on AI and new directions for international expansion Scale: According to iMedia Research, the market size of the micro short video industry may reach 67.8 billion yuan by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.4%. AI and international expansion: AI technology mainly assists in the creation of short videos, and it is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent technological iteration and application progress. According to data from DotData, the total revenue from international short videos may reach 400 million US dollars by 2024. The core competitiveness of short video internationalization lies in systematically transplanting domestic short video experience overseas and completing local adaptation, thereby forming effective production capacity on the ground. Continued attention should be paid to the development space in the future. Risk warning: intensified market competition leads to profit contraction, content supply does not meet market demand, regulatory policies tighten.