Highlights of the Securities industry Morning Meeting | New subsidies for mobile phones and other products may boost semiconductor demand

Yesterday, the market traded in a narrow range all day, with the three major indexes fluctuating, and the trend of large and small indexes diverging. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.11 trillion yuan, a decrease of 131 billion yuan from the previous trading day. In terms of market performance, thematic stocks were relatively active, with more stocks rising than falling. Over 2700 stocks in the entire market rose, with over a hundred stocks hitting their daily limit or rising by more than 10%. In terms of sectors, PCB concepts, humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, liquid-cooled servers, and military sectors performed well, while port, oil and gas, influenza, and clothing sectors declined. By the end of yesterday's trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.58%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.32%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.11%. At today's securities morning meeting, Huatai pointed out that the scope of the trade-in for new cars is expanding, focusing on strong car companies in the new car cycle. Tianfeng believes that subsidies for buying new products such as mobile phones may boost semiconductor demand. Guotai Junan stated that the aviation industry has a longer-than-expected growth logic, and the Spring Festival travel rush may catalyze optimistic expectations. Huatai: The scope of the trade-in for new cars is expanding, focusing on strong car companies in the new car cycle Huatai mentioned that under the policy of trading in old cars for new ones, the scrappage/placement of cars is expected to exceed 2.9/3.7 million units by 2024, driving car sales to over 920 billion yuan. The notice issued in early January 2025 "intensified and expanded the scope," which is expected to further help domestic new energy vehicles grab market share from joint ventures, leading to strong sales of top models, potentially driving the retail sales of passenger cars in 2025 up by +2% year on year. Looking ahead to 2025, we recommend focusing on whole vehicle companies with strong product cycles, which are resilient targets. Meanwhile, the PE valuation of currently leading heavy truck companies remains relatively low, and they have maintained good dividend habits, so it is recommended to increase stable allocations. Tianfeng: Subsidies for buying new products like mobile phones may boost semiconductor demand Tianfeng believes that subsidies for buying new products like mobile phones may boost semiconductor demand. It is expected that more regions will include mobile phones and other products in the subsidy range. Against the backdrop of AI enhancing the user experience of new products, we expect that buying new subsidies will accelerate consumer replacement of phones. It is recommended to pay attention to the increase in demand for chips related to smartphones/tablets/smart watches. Guotai Junan: The aviation industry has a longer-than-expected growth logic, and the Spring Festival travel rush may catalyze optimistic expectations Guotai Junan believes that the Chinese aviation industry has a longer-than-expected growth logic. With the trend of supply and demand recovery in 2025 confirming and considering the marketization of ticket prices and a significant slowdown in fleet growth, it is expected to start an upward trend in profitability center. Market expectations for long-term logic are still at a low point, with greater room for divergence. The Spring Festival travel rush in 2025 is expected to catalyze optimistic expectations. The strong demand for Spring Festival travel is expected to catalyze optimistic demand expectations, while pre-sale strategies are positive and expected to catalyze continued active changes in profit management expectations, and the profit performance is expected to catalyze an increase in the profitability center. It is suggested that oil prices and exchange rates do not change the long-term value of airlines, or provide a counter-cyclical opportunity. During the recovery of supply and demand in the aviation industry in 2023-2024, interim validation of the logic of rising ticket prices and profitability center is expected. Looking ahead to 2025, with the trend of supply and demand recovery confirmed, the upward trend in profitability center will begin.