Multiple Federal Reserve governors have spoken out, hinting at a pause in interest rate cuts.

date
10/01/2025
avatar
GMT Eight
Several Federal Reserve officials confirmed on Thursday that the Fed may keep interest rates at their current level for a longer period of time, only lowering them again when inflation noticeably cools. Boston Fed President Collins said on Thursday that due to the "considerable uncertainty" faced by officials over the outlook for the US economy, the pace of rate adjustments should be slowed now. Collins said at an event in Boston that the Fed's "policy is prepared to adjust as necessary in response to evolving circumstances if inflation does not continue to progress, it will be sustained at the current level for longer." The Fed's preferred inflation measure rose 2.4% in the year ending November, and 2.8% excluding food and energy, both higher than the Fed's 2% target. She said the US economic outlook is "good," but she noted that progress in restraining inflation this year may be slower than previously expected. She added that the new economic policies of the incoming Trump administration and the Republican-controlled Congress could also alter the economic trajectory, even though it is too early to estimate how this will play out. This view was echoed by Fed Governor Bauman and other Fed presidents. Bauman noted that the continued inflation risks justify slowing the pace of rate cuts. Bauman said she voted in favor of a rate cut last month, but added that she could have supported keeping borrowing costs stable. She said, "I still lean towards a cautious, gradual approach to policy adjustments." Kansas City Fed President Schmidt said rates may be approaching a level that neither stimulates nor slows the economy. Like Collins, Schmidt is a voting member this year. Philadelphia Fed President Hark said on Thursday that he is prepared to support further rate cuts in 2025, but the specific timing will depend on the economic situation. Hark said, "I still believe we are on a path of declining policy rates. Looking at everything in front of us, I am not planning to leave that path, nor am I planning to turn back. But the exact speed at which I continue along that path will depend entirely on the data input." At the December meeting last year, Fed policymakers cut rates for the third consecutive time, lowering the benchmark rate by 25 basis points, bringing the total decline for the year to one percentage point. Many Fed officials have said that given the inflation rate remained above the 2% target and the labor market is healthy, slowing the pace of rate cuts is appropriate at present. Collins said in an interview on Wednesday that she expects the magnitude of rate cuts this year to be smaller than a few months ago. She said her rate expectations are in line with the median forecast announced by Fed officials after the December meeting, which showed two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year. According to the pricing of futures contracts, investors widely expect policymakers to keep rates steady at the meeting on January 28-29. Collins said on Thursday that she supported the actions taken in December as a "trimming of good luck." Collins explained, "Overall, the rate cuts in December provided some additional insurance to maintain a healthy labor market condition while maintaining the restrictive policy stance needed to sustain ongoing price stability." Meanwhile, the minutes of the December Fed meeting released on Wednesday showed that nearly all meeting participants believed that the upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased, partly due to potential changes in trade and immigration policies. Participants noted that recent inflation data higher than expected and the potential impact of changes in trade and immigration policies suggest that inflation may decline more slowly than previously expected, with the risk that inflation may temporarily stall or have this downside risk. Participants believed that the Fed has reached or is near the appropriate level to slow easing; many believe that decisions in the coming quarters need to be made carefully. Most policymakers supported a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, saying that after careful consideration, although some believed that not cutting rates would be beneficial.

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