HK Stock Market Move | Aluminum stocks rise in intraday trading, bauxite may support aluminum oxide costs, aluminum price elasticity still expected.

In the aluminum industry, Aluminum Corporation Of China (02600) rose by 4.15% to HK$4.52, while CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) rose by 2.92% to HK$11.82. On the news front, the global research team of Bank of America recently published a research report stating that although supply is gradually recovering, the tight supply of bauxite in the industry will not be completely resolved in the near future, and alumina supply may remain tight until the first quarter of 2025. Although China will have 12.3 million tons of new alumina production capacity in 2025, it is estimated that only 6 million tons of bauxite resources are guaranteed, which means that the remaining production capacity may face obstacles when starting operations. Therefore, bauxite may become a cost support for alumina next year. CITIC SEC released a research report pointing out that the easing supply and demand situation combined with catalytic events have significantly weakened the price of alumina. Looking ahead to 2025, the central price of alumina is expected to decline; supply constraints strengthened together with expectations of demand improvement, indicating that there is still room for flexibility in aluminum prices. Optimistic about the investment value of the aluminum sector driven by the widening profit per ton of aluminum, dividends, and valuation logic.