Tracking Hong Kong concept stocks | Several large farms reported profits in their annual reports. Pork consumption enters traditional peak season before the Spring Festival (with concept stocks attached)

On the evening of January 8th, Muyuan Foods released the performance forecast for 2024, expecting to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 17 billion to 18 billion yuan, turning losses into profits compared to the previous year. In the A-share pig farming industry, Wens Foodstuff Group and Tech-bank Food have also previously released their 2024 performance forecasts, all expecting to turn losses into profits. From the comprehensive analysis of the announcements of listed companies, the rebound in pig farming profits is mainly due to the rise in pork prices, an increase in demand, and a decrease in feed prices. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the average price of pigs (outside of three elements) in 2024 was 16.81 yuan/kg, with the highest price exceeding 20 yuan/kg, a significant increase from the average of 14.99 yuan/kg in 2023. In December of last year, in order to alleviate the pressure of clearing out stock before the Spring Festival, most large-scale enterprises increased the pace of clearing out stock, with the actual amount of cleared out stock significantly exceeding the planned amount, exceeding the plan by 9.75%. In January 2025, coinciding with the New Year and the Spring Festival holiday, the number of days available for clearing out stock will decrease, and with weak expectations for future pig prices in the farming sector, some enterprises have chosen to clear out stock earlier in December, with planned clearing out stock decreasing compared to the previous month for large-scale enterprises. Data shows that in January, the planned amount of pigs to be cleared out by key provinces was 12.8239 million, a sharp decrease of 7.62% compared to the actual amount cleared out in December 2024. Enterprises in various regions collectively reduced their planned clearing out stock, with the largest decrease in Guangxi, dropping by more than 18% compared to the previous month. EB SECURITIES research reports indicate that due to the boost in holiday consumption and support from large-scale pig farming enterprises reducing production, the price of pigs experienced a phased rebound around New Year's Day. In terms of inventory, the average weight of pigs cleared out by Yongyi last week decreased by 1.7 kilograms, approaching the level in early November. After the speed of clearing out stock increased, the supply of medium and large pigs further tightened, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs widened significantly. Looking ahead, the theoretical amount of pigs expected to be cleared out in January is high, and the sentiment for clearing out stock after the holiday season is relatively strong, indicating that there is still significant pressure on the supply side. Western research reports believe that the average price of pigs cleared out recently has slightly increased, partly due to the arrival of the Spring Festival stocking season and the seasonal increase in demand pushing up pig prices. On the other hand, due to the significant drop in pig prices in the previous period, farmers have accelerated the clearing out of their pigs, leading to a more comprehensive selling of pigs, resulting in a slight decrease in short-term supply; it is expected that the price of pigs will seasonally rise before the Spring Festival, and the extent of the price drop after the holiday still needs to be observed. Domestic pig farming related companies: COFCO JOYCOME(01610), DEKON AGR(02419) Foreign pig farming companies: WH GROUP(00288)