"Thatcher moment" reenacted? UK 30-year inflation-linked bond yields rise to 2%

date
08/01/2025
avatar
GMT Eight
Notice that the yield on UK 30-year index-linked bonds has risen to 2% for the first time since the market crash at the end of 2022. At that time, the UK bond market experienced a severe reaction due to Prime Minister Trass' tax cut plan, leading to a stock market crash and ultimately forcing Trass to resign. Currently, amidst a global sell-off in bond markets, persistent inflation means policymakers may have to slow down interest rate cuts. Yields on UK government bonds have also reached multi-year highs, with the 30-year UK government bond yield reaching 5.28%, the highest level since 1998. The bond market movement has increased pressure on UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Rives to maintain market stability ahead of a large bond issuance. The Labour government plans to sell 297 billion in bonds this fiscal year, the second-highest on record, putting pressure on gilt markets as investors worry about the prospects of the country's ballooning debt. Sam Hill, Market Observer at Lloyds Bank, wrote in a report, "Following a busy January, at least for the remainder of this quarter, the burden of gilt issuance, in cash or term, is unlikely to significantly ease." Market trends show to what extent the UK government is walking a tightrope, trying to reassure investors and dispel memories of the disastrous mini-budget of 2022 under former Conservative Prime Minister Trass. Last October, as bond auction sizes could be larger, bond yields soared, and Rives has already received warnings from bond vigilantes.

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