Soochow: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) is expected to usher in a new cycle of growth, with intensive follow-up catalysts in the industry chain.

Soochow released a research report stating that the previous round of electrification innovation dividend brought Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) a growth cycle of 100,000 to 2 million vehicles. Looking ahead to 2025, a new round of intelligent innovation cycle will bring Tesla, Inc. to a scale of over 4 million vehicles. From 2025 to 2027, Tesla, Inc. will usher in a new cycle of products (renewed version of Model Y, Y platform small car, and Cybercab, etc.) + capacity (currently at the stage of needing to expand new capacity, with expectations and possibilities for expansion in North America and domestically), driving the growth of high-quality companies in Tesla, Inc.'s industry chain that have global expansion capabilities. The inflection point of the intelligent industry is approaching. In 2025, the penetration rate of L3 intelligence for new energy vehicles in China is expected to exceed 10% in 2024, 20% in 2025, and reach 70% in 2027. The upward slope may far exceed market expectations, especially in 2026 when automakers deeply enter the Robotaxi business, it is expected to accelerate consumer willingness to pay for intelligence. In 2025, each business line of Tesla, Inc. will reach milestone nodes for development, and subsequent catalysts will be intensive in the industry chain. On the vehicle side, in 2025Q1, the renewed version of Model Y will be launched globally + Y platform small car will be released in 2025H1 (expected to be introduced into mass production in North America, Europe, and China one after another) + Cybertruck capacity will continue to climb in 2025 + Expectations and possibilities for capacity expansion in all Tesla, Inc. factories in 2025. In terms of intelligent driving, in 2024Q4 FSD V13 will be launched in North America + FSD will enter China in 2025H1 + Cybercab will start road testing in North America in 2025H1 (Tesla, Inc. may become a blueprint and benchmark enterprise for common growth with North American intelligent driving policies and regulations) + HW5.0 version will be launched in 2025H2. In terms of Siasun Robot & Automation, it is expected to achieve technical freeze by the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025 + enter the mass production cycle in 2025 (for factory use) + is expected to achieve further large-scale mass production in 2026. Human-like Siasun Robot & Automation will resonate with intelligence to form a new wave of AI industry. Investment recommendation: Optimistic about the industry chain opportunities brought by Tesla, Inc.'s new global product cycle Ningbo Tuopu Group (601689.SH): a global core strategic platform supplier of Tesla, Inc., with a comprehensive layout of cars + Siasun Robot & Automation; Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim (603179.SH): a global core interior parts supplier of Tesla, Inc., a target with strong alpha in the 25-year T chain; Ningbo Xusheng Group (603305.SH): a global core lightweight supplier + extension of Siasun Robot & Automation products; Shanghai Daimay Automotive Interior (603730.SH): a global leading manufacturer of sun visors, ceiling, and other new product accelerated expansion. IKD Co., Ltd. (600933.SH): a core lightweight supplier of Tesla, Inc. in North America + expectations for Siasun Robot & Automation business; Ningbo Hengshuai (300969.SZ): comprehensive support for cleaning + micro motors, active perception of cleaning to accelerate positioning; Huayu Automotive Systems (600741.SH): undervalued varieties in the industrial chain of Tesla, Inc.; SAIC Motor Corporation (600104.SH): potential targets for cooperation with Tesla, Inc. at the entire vehicle level; Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ): Tesla, Inc. thermal management + Siasun Robot & Automation actuator business. Risk warning: Passenger car price wars exceed expectations; global new energy penetration rate lower than expected; increased political uncertainty risk for GEO Group Inc.