Kerry is vigilant about the risk of the US large tech stocks being "overheated" and may turn to the "extremely cheap" arms of European stocks.
08/01/2025
GMT Eight
Thomas (Jason Thomas), from KKR Investment Group, said that the surge in large US tech stocks is starting to look overdone, while the struggling European stock markets are becoming more attractive. In an interview on Tuesday, Thomas said that in the coming months, the euro may reach parity with the dollar, giving US dollar investors a favorable forex trading factor, as well as the fact that European stocks are now seen as "extremely cheap" in terms of valuation. He said that European stocks are trading 40% lower than US assets.
Based in Washington, Thomas, the head of global research and investment strategy at KKR, stated, "This provides investors with a significant risk premium," while also noting that large tech companies are adopting a more "asset-heavy" business model, which is causing their valuations to come under closer scrutiny.
Thomas' perspective sets him apart as predictions for the rebound of the European economy remain uncertain, while US tech stocks continue to perform well. The S&P 500 index rose 186% over the past decade until 2024, far surpassing the 48% increase in the STOXX Europe 600 index.
However, the euro reached a 12-month low of 1 euro to 1.0226 US dollars last week, well below the high of 1.1214 US dollars reached in September of last year. Bloomberg's FX Rate Forecast Model shows that the risk of the euro dropping below 1 dollar is increasing.
Thomas stated that he will closely monitor developments in Europe. He mentioned that a major unresolved issue in the region is whether or not leaders will act on the recommendation of former President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, to invest up to 800 billion euros annually (equivalent to 829 billion US dollars) and commit to regular issuance of joint bonds to enhance the global competitiveness of the eurozone.
Regarding US tech, Thomas emphasized that investors need to see if the large-scale investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centers will yield returns. This trend has propelled Nvidia's growth nearly threefold over the past 12 months, and its future performance remains to be seen.
He said, "The valuations of these companies indicate that the return on investment will be between 25-30%, and we are waiting for actual results."