Soochow: Global massive storage explosion with strong certainty, distributed emerging markets expected to continue high growth.

Soochow's research report states that there is a strong certainty of a global large storage explosion, with the United States maintaining high growth and Europe and emerging markets reaching a peak and continuing until 2026. Distributed emerging markets are expected to continue high growth, traditional markets are completing inventory reductions, and interest rate cuts are driving new growth. In Europe and the United States, there was an inventory reduction in Europe in 2024, with residential storage installations declining by 31% to 8.3GWh. Recent increases in natural gas prices and gradual interest rate cuts are expected to drive a 20% increase in installations in Europe and the United States in 2025, reaching 10GWh and 2GWh respectively. Top Picks: 1) Overseas large storage: Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ), Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ), CSI Solar Co., Ltd. (688472.SH), Eve Energy Co., Ltd. (300014.SZ), Sineng Electric (300827.SZ), BYD Company Limited (002594.SZ), focusing on Kehua Data Co., Ltd. (002335.SZ); 2) Overseas residential / commercial storage: Ningbo Deye Technology (605117.SH), Ginlong Technologies (300763.SZ), SolaX Power Network Technology (688717.SH), Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric (300693.SZ), Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co., Ltd. (688390.SH), Hoymiles Power Electronics Inc. (688032.SH), Pylon Technologies (688063.SH), Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology (002518.SZ), Yuneng Technology (688348.SH), etc.; 3) Domestic energy storage: Shenzhen Hopewind Electric (603063.SH), China Southern Power Grid Technology (688248.SH), etc. Soochow's main points are as follows: There is a strong certainty of a global large storage explosion, with the United States maintaining high growth and Europe and emerging markets reaching a peak and continuing until 2026. The bank expects a 56% increase in global large storage installations to 194GWh in 2025. In the United States, there was an acceleration in grid connection in 2024, with installations reaching 35GWh, a 105% increase. In 2025, the country entered a pre-tariff rush, with installations expected to grow by 45% to 51GWh. In Europe, the UK, Italy, and Germany lead the growth, with installations in 2025 revised upward to 18GWh, an increase of over 120%. In emerging markets, large projects are expected to be implemented in batches, with installations in 2025 expected to increase by 221% to 34GWh. In the Middle East, there will be 50-60GWh projects bidding in the first half of 2025, with installations expected to quadruple to 20GWh; Chile has 8GWh of projects under construction, supporting a doubling of installations to 4GWh in 2025; and Australia is expected to see... Emerging markets.(3) The high concentration of PCS in the domestic market, domestic enterprises are beginning to expand overseas, and the residential storage channels are key. Sunlight products' performance and overseas channel advantages are leading, with the large storage system expected to reach 40-50GWh in 25 years, with an increase of over 80%. The global market share of large storage is expected to increase to 35%; independent PCS manufacturers such as Shenergy and KEHUA are rising, tying up with battery companies or overseas integrators, leading to a significant increase in overseas shipments. The concentration of residential storage PCS is low, and DEYE is seizing new emerging markets, significantly increasing its market share, with future market exploration as the core competitive point. Risk warning: intensifying competition, unexpected policy changes, lower than expected installation of renewable energy, inadequate supply of raw materials, etc.