CMB macro: Import "sprinting" boosts temporary rebound in US inventories.

CMB Macro released a research report stating that on January 1, 2025, BEA released the industry inventory and sales data for October 2024 for the United States. In October, the total US inventory increased by 2.10% year-on-year, up from 1.39% in the previous period; and total sales increased by 1.77% year-on-year, up from 0.67% in the previous period. Sales and inventory both rebounded year-on-year in October in the United States, possibly due to a surge in imports and holiday factors triggered by the early signs of the election, with expectations that the surge in imports will end and lead to an active destocking phase. Among the 14 major industry categories, 3 industries are still actively restocking, namely upstream construction materials, midstream paper and forestry products, and electrical equipment, appliances, and components. Overall inventory cycle: The election factor prolongs restocking. In October, the total US inventory increased by 2.10% year-on-year, up from 1.39% in the previous period; and total sales increased by 1.77% year-on-year, up from 0.67% in the previous period. Sales and inventory both rebounded year-on-year in the United States in October, with a high probability of manufacturing rebounding in November being related to the surge in imports and holiday factors triggered by the early signs of the election, and with expectations that the surge in imports will end and lead to an active destocking phase. Inventory cycle by US industry: Upstream industries remain resilient, while downstream industries are all in passive restocking. Among the 14 major industry categories in October, 3 industries are still actively restocking, namely upstream construction materials, midstream paper and forestry products, and electrical equipment, appliances, and components. Looking at the historical percentile of inventory year-on-year, the overall inventory in October is at 28.1%, with automobiles and auto parts at 90.0%, paper and forestry products at 49.2%, technology hardware and equipment at 45.2%, transportation at 44.2%, and machinery manufacturing at 43.6%, with these 5 industries having a higher historical percentile of inventory year-on-year. Upstream: May be nearing the end of active restocking. 1) Petroleum, natural gas, and fuel consumption: Actively restocking from July 23 to May 24, actively destocking from June 24, and actively destocking as of October 24. 2) Chemicals: Actively restocking since February 24, actively restocking as of October 24. 3) Construction materials: Actively restocking since February 24, actively restocking as of July 24. 4) Metals and mining: Actively destocking since February 24, actively destocking as of October 24. Midstream: Inventory status is differentiated, with paper and forestry products, electrical equipment, appliances, and components possibly actively restocking, transportation passively restocking, and machinery manufacturing passively destocking. 1) Paper and forestry products: Actively restocking since July 24, actively restocking as of October 24. 2) Electrical equipment, appliances, and components: Actively restocking since July 24, actively restocking as of October 24. 3) Machinery manufacturing: Passively destocking since December 23, passively destocking as of October 24. 4) Transportation: Passively restocking since September 23, passively restocking as of October 24. Downstream: 6 industries are all in passive restocking. 1) Automobiles and auto parts: Passively restocking since April 24, passively restocking as of October 24. 2) Consumer durables: Possibly passively restocking since August 24, passively restocking as of October 24. 3) Textiles, clothing, and luxury goods: Passively restocking since July 24, passively restocking as of October 24. 4) Food, beverages, and tobacco: Passively restocking since July 24, passively restocking as of October 24. 5) Distribution and retail of daily consumer goods: Passively restocking since July 24, passively restocking as of October 24. 6) Technology hardware and equipment: Possibly passively restocking since August 24, passively restocking as of October 24.