Tracking Hong Kong stock concepts | New Year's Day inbound tourist orders double! OTA industry chain long-term investment value highlighted (with concept stocks)

With the convenience of the visa-free entry policy increasing, entering China for New Year's Eve has become a choice for many foreign tourists. Data from Ctrip shows that from December 31st to January 1st, the overall volume of inbound tourist orders doubled compared to the previous year. Among them, the volume of inbound tourist orders from South Korea and Japan increased by 215% and 145% respectively. Popular inbound destinations include Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, Guangzhou, Harbin, Chengdu, Chongqing, Zhuhai, Hangzhou, and Xi'an. Soochow believes that in the first three quarters of 2024, domestic outbound travel reached 4.237 billion person-times, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The tourism market is highly prosperous, and it is expected that future tourism volume will remain stable at a high level. Cultural and tourism consumption is an important lever to stimulate improving consumption, and central and local governments have successively introduced relevant consumption stimulus policies. According to officials from Spring and Autumn Travel, the visa-free policy to China has attracted more Japanese tourists to travel to China. February is not the peak season for traveling to the Yangtze River Delta region in China, but there have already been many inquiries and registrations from tourists. In addition, the New Year holiday has been "slimmed down," and tourists have extended the holiday by "splicing" it themselves. Spring and Autumn Travel stated that they initially thought that with New Year's Day being only a one-day holiday, travel agencies would face great sales pressure, but they did not expect that young people would take the initiative to travel, leading to a booking volume for trips from December 28, 2024 to January 1, 2025 exceeding the same period last year, with domestic travel volume increasing by nearly 30% year-on-year. Data provided by TONGCHENGTRAVEL shows that on their platform, the search popularity for "New Year's Eve hotels" for the 2025 New Year's Day has increased by more than 70% compared to the previous year, and the booking popularity for city surrounding tours (including booking volume) has increased by nearly 20% year-on-year. Looking ahead, domestic travel is returning to a normal trajectory, and outbound travel is expected to break through in 25 years. Specifically, in terms of domestic travel, returning to a normal trajectory, there is still ample room for future growth. By the third quarter of 24, domestic tourism volume and income had recovered to 92% and 100% respectively compared to the same period in 19, with per capita travel expenditure restored to 108% of 2019. From the perspective of industry structure, there is still room for the tourism industry revenue as a proportion of GDP to be repaired. Looking ahead to 25, with the addition of statutory public holidays, optimization of rest days, and the increasing willingness of residents to travel, it is expected that domestic tourism income will exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2028, corresponding to a CAGR of approximately 13% from 24 to 28. In terms of outbound travel, recovery is gradually progressing from near to far, with the prospect of breaking through in 25 years. In the first three quarters of 24, China's outbound travel reached nearly 95 million person-times, a year-on-year increase of 52%, restoring to 82% of 19; international civil aviation flight volumes have returned to about 80% of 19. Overall, the recovery of outbound travel is slower than domestic travel, with constraints shifting from supply-side factors such as capacity to constraints on both supply and demand, but with the promotion of related companies' overseas supply chain layout and product optimization, it is expected that a breakthrough will be made in 25 to return to the level of 2019. In the future, OTA platforms will develop and expand their overseas business while catering to the demand of domestic travelers for outbound travel. Looking ahead, there is still room for new users to be attracted to OTA platforms, and the bargaining power of the industry chain is solidified. The key link of OTA platforms in resource integration, with significant implications for transaction matching, is the sector that benefits most predictably from the growth of the travel and tourism market. For relevant companies, the performance of the tourism industry as a whole forms the basis of their profits, and the scale effects resulting from the integration of supply chain resources and the education of users on the demand side bring about bargaining power as a core barrier. In terms of demand, there is still plenty of potential to tap into customer demands, and there is room for further user growth in the market. The overseas path for the leading domestic OTA is a four-step process: "accepting domestic demand for outbound travel -> consolidating and integrating through mergers to strengthen the supply chain -> increasing users by exchanging prices -> improving retention and mining demand". The core of this process lies in users and the supply chain. The leading OTA has a forward-looking layout overseas, with a significant growth trend in the Asia-Pacific market where international giants are relatively absent. Furthermore, the penetration rate of the lower-tier market is still in the stage of increasing, with nearly 70% of recent WeChat payment users from TONGCHENG coming from non-first-tier cities. Both customer repeat purchases and average spending per customer have increased significantly, indicating that there is still room to tap into demand. In terms of the landscape, external competition has eased and the bargaining power of the industry chain is solid. Competition in the industry has shown signs of moderation recently, and the differentiation of various platforms will be based on consumer scenarios and mindset. Ctrip focuses on high-star hotels and business travelers, while TONGCHENG has initially focused on new users and user education in lower-tier markets, giving them a clear first-mover advantage. Additionally, the hotel supply side still needs to digest capacity, overall average daily rates are under pressure, the hotel industry is transitioning to more refined operations with a focus on occupancy rates, and with leading OTA investment in hotel chains and the incubation of their own brands, the position of the industry chain is further consolidated. Zheshang points out that the tourism industry has strong growth certainty, and OTA platforms are in the middle of the industry chain, making them the most certain benefactors of the growth of the travel and tourism market, with the increase in the penetration rate of domestic online travel and the expansion of leading domestic OTA overseas operations contributing incremental value. In terms of the external environment, the industry competition that was previously a concern has eased recently, hotel supply-side still needs to be dealt with, and OTA industry chain bargaining power is increasing, highlighting long-term investment value. Related concept stocks: Ctrip Group (09961): A global leading one-stop OTA platform, with a solid position as the leader in domestic high-end vertical traffic and high-star hotel supply chain, and rapid globalization expansion. Looking ahead, the increase in the online booking rate of domestic tourism and the structural growth of outbound travel will contribute momentum, with the international platform Trip in a period of rapid growth. The domestic market is stable, and the profit ratio of outbound business is increasing, combined with the company's own operational efficiency improvement, profits are expected to continue to grow. TONGCHENGTRAVEL(00780): In the third quarter of 24, the company's revenue reached 4.991 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51%; adjusted net profit reached 910 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.6%; both revenue and adjusted net profit exceeded company guidance. The core OTA revenue reached 4.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%; holiday business revenue reached 979 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36%, also exceeding company guidance. The company's adjusted net profit margin in the third quarter of 24 increased by 2.7 percentage points to 18.2%; the core OTA profit margin reached 31.3%, a year-on-year increase of 5.9 percentage points, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.8 percentage points.Duty Free Corporation (01880): The company is a leader in the domestic duty-free market, with a mature layout of duty-free services in offshore islands, ports, and city centers. On December 17th, the National Immigration Administration comprehensively relaxed and optimized the transit visa-free policy, extending the stay of transit visa-free foreigners in China from the original 72 hours and 144 hours to 240 hours. After the visa-free policy was announced, the popularity of Chinese destinations surged, benefiting the growth of city center duty-free services. China Duty Free Group's city center duty-free stores have the widest layout, leading to the most benefits.Je suis dsol, je ne parle pas franais.