In December, the heavy truck market sold 79,000 vehicles, ending a six-month decline in the industry. Electric heavy trucks surged to 13,000.

After the "six consecutive declines" in the market, the heavy truck industry finally ushered in a turning point. According to preliminary data obtained by the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in December 2024, China's heavy truck market sold a total of about 79,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a 15% increase from November, and a significant 52% increase compared to the same period last year with 52,100 units. The 79,000 units are higher than the sales volume in December in 2017 and 2021-2023, but lower than the sales volume in December in other years. It ended the continuous six-month year-on-year downward trend in the heavy truck market from June to November of this year, greatly boosting the confidence of the entire industrial chain. From 2018 to 2024, China's monthly sales trend of heavy trucks (unit: vehicles) was as follows: In December, the heavy truck market sold 79,000 vehicles, ending the industry's six consecutive declines In the last four months of 2024, the sales volume of the heavy truck market showed a "step-by-step increase," a trend that was different from the previous years of "monthly sequential declines." The main reason for this change is directly related to industry policies. Looking at cumulative sales, from January to December 2024, China's heavy truck market sold approximately 897,000 vehicles of various types (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year-on-year decrease of about 2%. The analysis by the First Commercial Vehicle Network indicates that the significant growth in the heavy truck market in December 2024 turning from negative to positive was mainly due to the stimulus of the policy of "replacing old trucks with new ones" and the growth in exports. According to the policy of replacing old trucks with new ones implemented on July 31 this year, December 31, 2024 was the deadline for replacing old trucks with new ones. In the final month of this policy, the replacement speed for National III heavy trucks further accelerated, as after this deadline, the highest subsidy for scrapping a vehicle is 45,000, and for purchasing a new vehicle, the highest subsidy is 65,000 (for National VI diesel trucks) / 95,000 (for new energy heavy trucks), which is quite appealing. Therefore, the demand in the heavy truck market in December increased instead of decreased. It is expected that domestic terminal sales in December will increase by about 14% compared to the previous month, and the year-on-year increase will be about 80%, which is quite satisfactory in both comparisons. In addition, the export wholesale sales volume of heavy trucks in December 2024 remained stable compared to the previous month, with a nearly 20% year-on-year increase, which also contributed to the overall growth of domestic and foreign wholesale sales in that month. Looking at the year-on-year and month-on-month growth in terminal actual sales in December, the wholesale sales volume for that month followed suit and increased as well. However, it is important to note that this month's domestic wholesale sales volume is still lower than the terminal sales volume. This is partly due to channel and manufacturer destocking reasons, and partly because some heavy truck companies hold back sales at the end of the year, "transferring" some wholesale sales to the first quarter of 2025, in order to strive for a good start in early 2025 and boost morale for companies and dealers. Gas-powered trucks surged, electric heavy trucks performed exceptionally well Apart from the policy of replacing old trucks with new ones driving the overall increase in industry sales, there are several other aspects worth noting in the heavy truck market in December 2024: gas-powered trucks, new energy vehicles, and the wave of strong replacement demand brought about by the policy of replacing old National IV trucks with new ones in areas like Jiangsu. Let's first look at natural gas heavy trucks. In December 2024, due to the retail price of LNG being less than 5 yuan/kg, significantly lower compared to the same period last year, the market demand for natural gas heavy trucks in that month saw a substantial year-on-year increase, with terminal sales expected to increase by about 50%, although a slight decrease month-on-month with sales levels similar to September 2024. Next, let's look at new energy heavy trucks. As an important driving force for the development of China's heavy truck market, sales of new energy heavy trucks in various segments have continued to show strong momentum since the beginning of the year. The terminal actual sales in December are expected to be around 13,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 1.1 times. The 13,000 units of monthly sales also broke the historical record of 10,100 units in November, setting a new high in the development history of new energy heavy trucks.