Brent crude oil prices have dropped for the second consecutive year, with demand concerns suppressing the price prospects for 2025.

Due to a recovery in demand stagnation and the injection of more crude oil into the well-supplied market by the United States and other non-OPEC countries, oil prices fell by about 3% cumulatively in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decline. On Tuesday, Brent crude futures closed up 0.88% at $74.64 per barrel, down about 3% from the final closing price of $77.04 in 2023; WTI crude futures closed up 1.03% at $71.72 per barrel, essentially flat compared to the 2023 final closing price. However, in terms of individual stocks, the SPDR Energy Sector ETF (XLE.US) rose by 2.1% at the end of 2024. The top ten stocks in the energy and natural resources sector in terms of price changes in 2024 are as follows: In September, Brent crude futures closed below $70 per barrel for the first time since December 2021. This year, as demand rebounds following the pandemic and price impacts from the Russia-Ukraine conflict begin to fade, Brent crude futures prices have generally been lower than the highs of the past few years. A survey of Wall Street giants such as Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley shows that expectations for oil prices next year have been lowered due to global weak demand and oversupply putting pressure on the oil market. The survey indicates an average price of $71.57 per barrel for Brent crude in 2025 and $67.44 per barrel for WTI crude in 2025; it is expected that in the first quarter of 2025, prices for Brent and WTI crude will be $73.11 per barrel and $69.10 per barrel respectively, falling to $70.23 and $66.14 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have lowered their expectations for oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025. The IEA believes that even though OPEC and its allies have delayed plans to increase production in the face of falling oil prices until April 2025, the oil market will still be in a surplus in 2025. Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday showed that U.S. crude oil production increased by 259,000 barrels per day in October, reaching a new historical high of 13.46 million barrels per day, driven by demand reaching its strongest level since the pandemic. The EIA predicts that production will rise to a new record of 13.52 million barrels per day next year. Economic and regulatory prospects Investors will focus on the Fed's interest rate cuts in 2025. In December, the Fed hinted that the pace of rate cuts in 2025 will slow down due to persistently high inflation. Lower rates generally stimulate economic growth, thereby boosting energy demand. Some analysts still believe that supply may tighten next year, depending on the policies of President-elect Trump - including sanction policies. He has called for an immediate ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war and may reintroduce so-called maximum pressure policies on Iran, which could have a significant impact on the oil market. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said, "With the possibility of Trump imposing harsher sanctions on Iranian oil, we expect the oil market to become more tense as we enter the new year." He also mentioned strong demand from India and recent strong manufacturing data from China. Phil Flynn added that with the geopolitical risks in Russia and the Middle East, the Brent crude oil market is prepared for supply disruptions, something that has never happened before. In addition, the U.S. government has purchased crude oil this year to replenish strategic reserves, but in much smaller quantities than in previous years, and a decrease in reserves may "mean that WTI crude prices will rise due to increased supply risks."