Trump's return to the White House could bring new variables. Bullish bets on crude oil rise to four-month high.

In the penultimate week of 2024, as investors prepared for a new year with the return of Trump to the White House, bullish bets on crude oil reached the highest in four months. According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, in the week ending December 24, fund managers increased their net long positions on WTI crude oil by 21,694 contracts, reaching 182,895 contracts. The volatility of crude oil futures was less than $3 that week, indicating that the increase in long positions was due to long-term positioning changes rather than short-term price reactions. A week ago, hedge funds increased their bets on rising oil prices to the highest level in a year. Despite imminent oversupply and weak demand from major Asian consuming countries putting pressure on the market in 2025, investors are still preparing for upside risks with the ongoing conflicts in Russia, Ukraine, and the Middle East, as Trump returns to the White House. The stance of the incoming U.S. President on major oil-exporting country Iran is a key consideration for traders. Bridgeton Research stated that earlier this month, algorithmic traders switched to net long positions on WTI and Brent crude oil, and continued to expand these positions.