Silicon Industry Sub-Association: Overall stable prices in the silicon material market in December, the destocking of monocrystalline silicon is progressing quickly and future expectations are optimistic.

On December 27, the Silicon Industry Sub-Association issued a statement stating that in December, the overall prices in the silicon material market remained stable, with industrial silicon and polysilicon transaction prices basically unchanged. Some orders experienced a slight decrease in transaction prices. Currently, most silicon material companies are operating at low production levels, therefore it is speculated that in January, the overall price of polysilicon will remain stable, with slow recovery in demand for industrial silicon and difficulty in inventory clearance. It is expected that the spot price of industrial silicon will continue to fluctuate within the bottom range in January next year. On the other hand, the monocrystalline silicon market started to rise due to the exhaustion of inventory and the urgent need for battery companies to replenish their stocks. This has led to an increase in procurement pace and an increase in demand as a result of the significant growth in domestic demand at the end of the year, leading to an early price increase in batteries which in turn drives silicon wafer companies to raise prices. Industrial Silicon The spot price of industrial silicon experienced a slight decline in December. Specifically: At the beginning of the month, the industrial silicon market transactions were still relatively weak, downstream purchases were just starting, hoarding behavior decreased, and most manufacturers focused on fulfilling long-term orders. Mid-month saw a decrease in downstream demand, with a cautious attitude towards downstream purchases, leading to the main contract price breaking below 11600 yuan/ton, the emergence of low-priced goods in the market, and manufacturers facing significant pressure in transactions and shipments while prices fell. At the end of the month, there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the industrial silicon spot market, with prices remaining stable overall and minimal transactions, as there was no significant increase in downstream purchasing demand, and the procurement was cautious. On the supply side, the "high in the north and low in the south" situation was maintained in production levels, with southwest regions continuing to reduce production and new capacity being put into operation in the northwest, resulting in an overall supply decrease of about 60,000 tons compared to November. As for demand, the recovery of silicon demand increased, as organic silicon plant operations resumed, leading to higher demand for industrial silicon; polysilicon production cuts led to a decrease in demand for industrial silicon; aluminum alloy companies maintained normal production levels, thus maintaining stable demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the three major downstream demands saw a slight decrease compared to November. The recovery of downstream demand for industrial silicon will take time, inventory clearance will be difficult, and there is insufficient upward momentum, therefore it is predicted that the spot price of industrial silicon will continue to fluctuate within the bottom range in January next year. Polysilicon In December, the overall price of polysilicon remained stable, with a slight increase at the end of the month. The monthly average transaction price for n-type recycled silicon was 40,400 yuan/ton, and the n-type granular silicon was 37,300 yuan/ton. Large transactions of polysilicon in this month were concentrated in the first two weeks, with transaction prices mostly unchanged, and some orders even experiencing a slight decrease in transaction prices. At this stage, downstream companies have basically completed pre-holiday stocking, and the inventory of the polysilicon industry has gradually shifted from manufacturers to downstream companies. Meanwhile, some polysilicon companies have gradually formed expectations of price increases, leading to a general increase in quotes. Starting from the third week, although most polysilicon companies have signed new orders, the overall volume of these orders has decreased with more small transactions. Due to the current mainly being small replenishment orders or purchases from traders, some transaction prices have increased. Most silicon material companies are currently operating at low production levels, therefore the production schedule for polysilicon in January is relatively clear, with a supply volume expected to be below 100,000 tons. The operating rate on the demand side has been adjusted, but due to sufficient stocking in the previous period, the concentrated purchasing ahead of the holidays in January appears to be weakening, therefore it is expected that the overall price of polysilicon will remain stable in January, with some small orders likely to continue to rise. Monocrystalline Silicon This month, small-sized silicon wafers saw a slight price increase due to supply shortages. Specifically, the price of N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers increased from 1.03 yuan/piece to 1.05 yuan/piece, a 1.94% increase; the price of N-type G12R monocrystalline silicon wafers remained stable at 1.16 yuan/piece; the price of N-type G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers remained stable at 1.4 yuan/piece. The main reasons for the price increase of silicon wafers are twofold: firstly, the depletion of inventory has led battery companies in urgent need to replenish their stocks, thus accelerating their procurement pace; secondly, the significant increase in domestic demand at the end of the year has led batteries to increase prices, stimulating silicon wafer companies to increase prices. In terms of specific sizes, due to the accelerated switch from G10L to G12R production capacities in the previous period, the downstream demand did not match, leading to a short-term shortage of G10L and an oversupply of G12R. A new round of price increases is expected to be implemented at the beginning of the year, with a high probability that the prices of G10L and G12 sizes will be accepted, while G12R will require negotiations between upstream and downstream. Based on the above situation, a price increase in January next year is likely to occur, with different sizes experiencing different degrees of price fluctuations. In the overall first quarter, prices are expected to moderately rise, and in the medium to long term, the supply and demand situation for silicon wafers has significantly improved. If downstream demand picks up and the price increase is transmitted downward, then the future outlook is optimistic.